How each Japan contender can win the Breeders' Cup Classic
The 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic is projected to be a fast pace thanks to the presence of Fierceness, Arthur’s Ride, Next and maybe even City Of Troy, based on trainer Aidan O'Brien's comments.
With the forecasted pace in mind, this is how each of the Japan-based Classic entrants could win the Classic on Saturday at Del Mar.
1. Forever Young, 6-1 morning line
From post 1, jockey Ryusei Sakai will need to make a very quick decision, much like he needed to do in the Kentucky Derby. Will he ride the rail and attempt to endure kickback with a ground-saving trip or drop back and attempt a wider trip devoid of Del Mar dirt clods?
Both Sakai and trainer Yoshito Yahagi have noted that Forever Young does not appreciate kickback while racing on dirt. Therefore, they equip a hood without blinkers to combat his disdain for stray dirt.
Forever Young typically sits a stalking or midpack trip when Sakai can negotiate it. In a 14-horse field, this trip should be more manageable as opposed to the crush of horses he dealt with on the first Saturday in May.
We've seen him go four, five and even six wide around the final turn only to lock sights on his target and wear them down with determined strides in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2). I expect him to attempt an outside run in midpack and lock in around the far turn on whomever has found the lead at that point. When he has a clear target and is unhampered, he’s extremely dangerous.
6. Derma Sotogake, 20-1
In the 2023 UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake took the lead and never looked back. He never has been given the chance to attempt the same race style since then, but he proved in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic that he does not need a dream trip to kick on and take aim at the final stretch leader.
For the first time, blinkers will be on for this year's Classic. Derma Sotogake has worn a hood but no blinkers until this weekend. But I don't believe trainer Hidetaka Otonashi and jockey Christophe Lemaire need the lead on Saturday to perform well. Yet look for him to break decently and take up position in midpack until the field reaches the backstretch.
Lemaire likely will pull him outside and take aim on the leading rivals, much like his run in 2023. Let’s see what he can do after a full summer of rest and one stiff preparation race in September. I am excited for him to display his full potential here.
7. Ushba Tesoro, 12-1
The 7-year-old veteran and winner of more than $16 million is returning to the Breeders' Cup stage after a season of second-place finishes.
He certainly has not been disgraced this season, losing to Señor Buscador, Laurel River and William Barrows in graded company.
Ushba Tesoro does his best work closing from rear to midpack, and given the projected fast pace in this year's Classic, he may be the recipient of the greatest benefit among our three Japanese entrants. His anticipated trip is the simplest, take back, stay out of trouble and crowding, and make one sustained run beginning in the late backstretch, similar to the trip he received in the Nippon TV Hai at Funabashi racecourse.
According to Netkeiba, the track at Funabashi for the Nippon TV Hai was potentially tiring for closers on Sept. 25. With that in mind, I expect this stallion to relish the sand-fortified, yet still balanced, Del Mar dirt this weekend to get a fair shot at closing strong and contending for the win on Saturday.