Midland: How I'm playing Monmouth's Pick 5 carryover
An unusual double-carryover in Monmouth's pick five has created a sizeable carryover for Friday on the early evening card. The carryover is $201,241, which should bring in new money of $1,000,000 or more. The Pick five starts on Race 2 at 5:28ET.
It's a tough sequence, and I'll use the new HRN pro reports to shed some light on the races.
(All five reports are available daily, both individually and as part of the HRN Pro Membership package.)
Monmouth riding colony
There's been so much talk about the Monmouth jockeys and the restrictive crop rules. If you're not that familiar with the riding colony, the new Jockey report can help.
The Jockey report shows us not only the jockey's win percentage, but the "expected wins" based on the odds of their mounts. Comparing these two numbers gives us the HRN impact number - which basically shows which riders are outperforming their odds (in green) and which ones are underperforming (red).
A good example of a hot jockey is Mychel Sanchez on the dirt. Based on his odds, he should only be winning with 13% of his mounts, but he's actually winning 21% of the time, almost double what he should be winning. Now that's a hot jockey.
Race 2 - 6 furlongs
This race looks like one of the more formful in the sequence, so we'll go with the 1,4,5. There's a fair amount of speed with the 1,3,6 all showing pace, so we're hoping the 4 or 5 can close for the win.
Race 3 - 1 1/16 miles
This race is much more wide-open, and there are several here that could make an impact. The #8 Spun and Won was impressive first time out, but he could be up against it from the outside. The HRN Post-position bias report shows that inside posts, especially the 1 and 2 are advantaged at this distance.
Here we'll use the 1,2,3,4 as A's and the 8 as a B.
Race 4 - 6 furlongs
There's a bit more pace in this race, so let's take a look at the HRN report. Every day, the Pace report shows the pace potential for every race in the country. It's a great tool to use in your handicapping.
Race 4 shows an MPH score of 69, which is not blazing fast, but the fastest pace on the Monmouth card. This doesn't ensure a hot pace, but it is something we definitely want to consider in our handicapping.
In this race we'll use the 5,7,8, all of which come from off the pace a little bit. If you like to watch replays, take a look at the replay on the 5 horse, she broke her maiden impressively with a wide trip circling the field and drawing off, which is hard to do at the five furlong distance.
Race 5 - 1 mile 70 yards
The 9 horse looks solid enough on paper, but he'll have to clear the 2 or risk getting in a pace duel. For that reason, we'll include the 4,7 as closers and the 8 as a B horse as a bit of a wild card.
Race 6 - 5 furlongs on turf
If the other races weren't open enough, this last race could be really tough. We'll use the 5 horse as an A since he's been knocking on the door in turf sprints but back up with the 3,4, and 8 as B horses.
Putting it all together, it looks like this below. We'll use an A,B structure where we can have up to two B's winning in the sequence.
Race 2: 1,4,5
Race 3: A's 1,3,4... B's 2,8
Race 4: A's 5,8... B's 7
Race 5: A's 4,7,9... B's 8
Race 6: A's 5... B's 3,4,8
That total ticket is $289.50, which is a little more than I'd like to spend, but it's a big carryover and a difficult sequence. So if you don't want to spend that much, grab a few friends to split it, I know I will!
Good Luck everyone!
For more information on the HRN Pro Reports:
Packaged together as HRN Pro Reports, the daily reports tackle five of the most difficult handicapping challenges that face players every day:
- First-timer insight report - Help identifying live 1st and 2nd-timers
- Pace report - Analytics isolating the fastest and slowest paces
- Post-position bias report - Identifying good & bad posts at every distance
- Shipper stats report - Updated stats on how shippers do coming into every track
- Jockey report - Which jockeys are good and bad bets and when?
All five reports are available daily, both individually and as part of a low-cost monthly HRN Pro Membership package.