How Baffert's Kentucky Derby dispute affects the leaderboard
Reports about races that offer qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby usually include a disclaimer that horses trained by Bob Baffert are ineligible to earn points because of his ban from Churchill Downs Inc. tracks.
And CDI said any Baffert trainees who are switched to another barn will not be awarded any points they would have earned. So when Baffert horses finish in the top four in a points prep, the points they would have earned go to nobody.
So far, the most points that would have been earned by a Baffert horse are 30, which would have gone to Corniche for his wins in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. True, that's not enough to punch a ticket for the Derby. But those points could have come in handy to, say, the horse who finished second in those races: Pappacap.
The Mark Casse trainee earned 12 points for his runner-up efforts in those races and is second on the leaderboard with 30 points. He is 34 points behind Epicenter, who jumped to the top after picking up 50 points with his win in Saturday's Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds.
"Really haven't concerned myself with that, to be honest," Casse told Horse Racing Nation in a text message. "The next 45 days are when the big points come out."
Baffert didn't have any entries in the Risen Star, which was hosted by a CDI track that would not have welcomed him anyway. But for this Saturday's Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn, it's a much different story. Baffert, who has won the Rebel a record eight times, will start the undefeated Newgrange, and he is expected to be the betting favorite. If Newgrange wins, that means 50 points are gone – points that could have guaranteed a Derby berth to a horse with a different trainer.
With Baffert horses not eating up so many points, the cut line is lower. Instead of being at 10 points, it is now at five. Although that will rise in the coming weeks, it is likely to finish lower than it would have if the Baffert 3-year-olds were eligible. Right now, Barber Road, Commandperformance, Mackinnon and Pioneer of Medina would be in the race. If the Bafferts were allowed to get points, those four would be on the outside looking in.
The table below shows what the leaderboard looks like with and without Baffert-trained horses, who are shown in boldface.
| w/ | w/o | Horse | Points | Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Epicenter | 64 | $340,000 |
| 2 | x | Corniche | 30 | $1,262,000 |
| 3 | 2 | Smile Happy | 30 | $314,410 |
| 4 | x | Newgrange | 20 | $552,000 |
| 5 | 3 | Classic Causeway | 16 | $246,100 |
| 6 | 4 | Pappacap | 14 | $562,000 |
| 7 | x | Messier | 14 | $285,600 |
| 8 | 5 | Zandon | 14 | $90,000 |
| 9 | 6 | White Abarrio | 12 | $186,850 |
| 10 | 7 | Mo Donegal | 12 | $161,500 |
| 11 | 8 | Rattle N Roll | 10 | $300,000 |
| 12 | 9 | Jack Christopher | 10 | $275,000 |
| 13 | 10 | Make It Big | 10 | $240,000 |
| 14 | 11 | Slow Down Andy | 10 | $184,000 |
| 15 | 12 | Major General | 10 | $177,525 |
| 16 | 13 | Dash Attack | 10 | $172,500 |
| 17 | 14 | Early Voting | 10 | $137,500 |
| 18 | 15 | Call Me Midnight | 10 | $123,500 |
| 19 | x | Blackadder | 10 | $108,920 |
| 20 | 16 | Courvoisier | 10 | $83,750 |
| 21 | 17 | Barber Road | 8 | $239,700 |
| 22 | 18 | Commandperformance | 6 | $200,000 |
| 23 | 19 | Mackinnon | 5 | $296,000 |
| 24 | x | Rockefeller | 5 | $162,500 |
| 25 | 20 | Pioneer of Medina | 5 | $16,000 |
| 26 | 21 | Giant Game | 4 | $182,500 |
| 27 | 22 | Simplification | 4 | $140,070 |
| 28 | 23 | Cabo Spirit | 4 | $112,000 |
| 29 | 24 | Tough to Tame | 4 | $57,750 |
| 30 | 25 | Un Ojo | 4 | $55,000 |
| 31 | 26 | Shipsational | 4 | $40,000 |
| 32 | 27 | Smarten Up | 4 | $31,250 |
| 33 | 28 | Ben Diesel | 3 | $94,650 |
| 34 | 29 | Wit | 2 | $202,500 |
| 35 | 30 | Kavod | 2 | $198,500 |
| 36 | x | Barossa* | 2 | $120,200 |
| 37 | 31 | Cooke Creek | 2 | $79,250 |
| 38 | x | Wharton | 2 | $64,200 |
| 39 | 32 | Red Knobs | 2 | $53,075 |
| 40 | 33 | Midnight Chrome | 2 | $32,500 |
| 41 | 34 | Gilded Age | 2 | $30,000 |
| 42 | 35 | Ignitis | 2 | $29,643 |
| 43 | 36 | Volcanic | 2 | $21,500 |
| 44 | 37 | Del Mo | 2 | $42,500 |
| 45 | 38 | My Prankster | 1 | $121,380 |
| 46 | 39 | American Sanctuary | 1 | $104,600 |
| 47 | 40 | Grantham | 1 | $15,000 |
| 48 | 41 | Bourbon Heist | 1 | $14,438 |
| 49 | 42 | Unbridled Bomber | 1 | $10,250 |
| 50 | 43 | Trafalgar | 1 | $129,060 |
| 51 | 44 | Sir London | 1 | $69,400 |
| 52 | 45 | Galt | 1 | $45,475 |
| 53 | 46 | Il Belator | 1 | $6,000 |
| 54 | 47 | Strike Hard | 1 | $4,250 |
| *Now trained by Rodolphe Brisset. |