Horses to watch: 10 contenders for loaded stakes weekend
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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Any way you slice it, Dream Shake ran a big race in the Grade 2 San Felipe last month. Making his stakes and two-turn debut, the son of Twirling Candy showed no hesitation racing inside of rivals, rallying up the inside to finish third against a strong field.
If Dream Shake takes a step forward in his second start around two turns, he will be a major player in Saturday’s eighth race at Santa Anita, the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1, post time 7:15 p.m. EDT). He has fired off two fast workouts since the San Felipe and should enjoy another ground-saving trip while breaking from post two, stamping Dream Shake as a logical contender for victory under leading jockey Flavien Prat.
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner never really fired when trying dirt in the Feb. 27 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), fading from a tracking position to finish eighth by a wide margin. But he figures to rebound in a big way when returning to turf for Friday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the $150,000 Transylvania Stakes (G3, post time 5:30 p.m. EDT).
As a son of Declaration of War out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, Fire At Will is bred to be at his best on turf. He has trained sharply since the Fountain of Youth and has the tactical speed to work out a clean trip in a small field. What is not to like? Earls Rock and Scarlett Sky are capable rivals, but if Fire At Will brings his A-game, the rest may be running for second place.
Highly Motivated did not run a bad race by any means when finishing third in the Gotham (G3) to kick off 2021. The son of Into Mischief broke a bit slowly and steadied in traffic early on, forcing him to settle in sixth place behind a modest pace. Despite these obstacles, Highly Motivated never gave up and came rallying late to finish third by just 1 3/4 lengths.
I expected Highly Motivated to take a big step forward in Saturday’s 11th race at Keeneland, the $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G2, post time 6:35 p.m. EDT). He is quick enough to secure an uncontested lead in this paceless race, and trainer Chad Brown wins at a 48-percent rate with horses running long for the second time. Can Highly Motivated upset heavy favorite Essential Quality? I don’t think it is out of the question.
Jouster
Front-running Jouster is a nose away from being undefeated in three starts on turf, settling for second by the narrowest of margins in the Florida Oaks (G3) last month. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly will get another opportunity to nab her first graded stakes success when starting in Saturday’s sixth race at Keeneland, the $200,000 Appalachian Stakes (G2, post time 3:51 p.m. EDT). The field looks competitive on paper but cutting back to one mile (as opposed to 1 1/16 miles) should help Jouster carry her speed to the winner’s circle.
Malathaat
Stepping into Grade 1 company off a four-month layoff is never an easy task, but Malathaat might be capable of handling the challenge in Saturday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the $400,000 Ashland Stakes (G1, post time 5:30 p.m. EDT). A beautifully bred daughter of Curlin out of the Grade 1-winning mare Dreaming of Julia, Malathaat overcame a challenging trip over a sloppy track to win the Demoiselle (G2) with a huge late rally last fall. Malathaat defeated a quality field (runner-up Millefeuille finished second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last week), so I am optimistic Malathaat can deliver a sharp effort even off the extended break.
Medina Spirit
Second in the Sham Stakes (G3) behind Life Is Good, first in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) ahead of future Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Hot Rod Charlie, second in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), again behind Life Is Good – it is safe to say Medina Spirit has run well against tough competition this winter.
With Life Is Good out of the picture due to an ankle chip, the Santa Anita Derby looks like Medina Spirit’s place to shine. The son of Protonico has trained sharply and retains the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, so I expect Medina Spirit to give trainer Bob Baffert a record-extending tenth victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
Paris Lights
The wait is over. Unraced since scoring a gritty victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga last summer, Paris Lights will finally return to action in Friday’s seventh race at Aqueduct, the $150,000 Distaff Handicap (G3, post time 4:34 p.m. EDT).
I don’t necessarily expect Paris Lights to win Friday. She is 3-for-3 running long and was beaten in her debut sprinting, so the seven-furlong distance of the Distaff Handicap might be a little short for the daughter of Curlin. Plus, Paris Lights missed a lot of training time with an injury, so it is possible she will be rusty in her first start of the season.
But I am definitely excited to see how Paris Lights performs on Friday. She has the pedigree to develop into an elite older horse if she comes back none the worse for wear.
Pauline’s Pearl
A pedestrian pace and a traffic-filled trip compromised Pauline’s Pearl in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park last month, so I was impressed to see her rally gamely up the inside and finish second by less than a length. A beautifully bred daughter of Tapit out of Spinaway (G1) winner Hot Dixie Chick, Pauline’s Pearl looms as a formidable favorite in Saturday’s 11th race at Oaklawn, the $600,000 Fantasy (G3, post time 6:54 p.m. EDT). She has already defeated key rivals Sun Path and Coach, so if Pauline’s Pearl gets a clean trip and a quick pace to work with on Saturday, she can win for fun in the Fantasy.
Prevalence
Undefeated in two starts, the Godolphin homebred Prevalence will make his stakes debut in Saturday’s 10th race at Aqueduct, the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2, post time 5:58 p.m. EDT). The stoutly bred son of Medaglia d’Oro was a comfortable allowance winner racing one mile at Gulfstream last month and figures to appreciate stretching out around two turns. Do not forget, the last eight Wood Memorial winners all prepped in Florida, so Prevalence may hold a subtle advantage while shipping north to face the Aqueduct locals.
Untreated
Granted, Untreated is taking a very big step up in class for the Blue Grass Stakes. But you can’t knock how the Todd Pletcher-trained colt performed in a two-turn maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Making just his second start, the son of Nyquist unleashed a sweeping rally around the far turn before powering clear under a hand ride to dominate by 8 3/4 lengths. Untreated clearly has talent, and a top-three finish should be within reach at Keeneland.