Horses to Watch: Will Travel Column turn tables on Clairiere?

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Upcoming entries

Clairiere

A beautifully bred daughter of Curlin out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Cavorting, Clairiere kicked off her sophomore season with a professional victory in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. After dropping back to last place early on, Clairiere advanced up the inside, waited in traffic around the final turn, shifted outside for racing room and wore down graded stakes winner Travel Column to win by a neck.

This effort has stamped Clairiere as the favorite to win Saturday’s 13th race at Fairgrounds, the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2, post time 6:14 p.m. EDT). Travel Column is back in the entries, and another close finish may ensue. But Clairiere is bred to improve with maturity, and the fact trainer Steve Asmussen has nominated her to the Triple Crown says a lot about Clairiere’s talent and potential.

              Click here for Fair Grounds Entries/Results.

Colonel Liam

Sold for $1.2 million as a juvenile, Colonel Liam has been in hot form since returning from a layoff in December. The Todd Pletcher trainee dominated the Tropical Park Derby before unleashing a powerful finish to nab victory in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1).

Colonel Liam will seek to continue his ascent to stardom in Saturday’s 12th race at Fair Grounds, the Muniz Memorial Classic (G2, post time 5:43 p.m. EDT). Working out a clean trip in this large field could be tricky, but three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount, offsetting some of the risk. Colonel Liam possesses exceptional acceleration (he dashed the final three-sixteenths of the Pegasus in 16.63 seconds), so I’m expecting another big effort in the Muniz Memorial.

Hot Rod Charlie

Second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 94-1. Third by a neck in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Hot Rod Charlie has fired off some encouraging efforts while a member of our watch list, but so far victory has proven elusive.

Perhaps Hot Rod Charlie will enjoy better luck in Saturday’s 14th race at Fair Grounds, the Louisiana Derby (G2, post time 6:44 p.m. EDT). As the lone out-of-state shipper in the field Hot Rod Charlie is a fresh face exiting two races against tough competition. Hot Rod Charlie has already knocked heads with high-profile Derby contenders Essential Quality and Medina Spirit, so there’s a chance he’ll find the competition a little more manageable in the Louisiana Derby. Another top-three finish should be within reach.

Olympic Runner

We highlighted Olympic Runner after he battled to a runner-up effort in the Canadian Turf (G3) at Gulfstream Park, beaten just a neck after racing wide against a ground-saving winner. Unfortunately, the improving Mark Casse trainee seems destined for an even wider trip after drawing post 11 in the Muniz Memorial Classic.

It’s possible Olympic Runner will manage to tuck in and save ground under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, setting the stage for another strong finish. But we won’t judge too harshly if Olympic Runner races wide and falters at Fair Grounds; he’s facing pretty tough competition, after all.

Souper Sensational

Even though she will be a long shot in the Fair Grounds Oaks, there are reasons to believe Souper Sensational can outrun expectations on Saturday. In both the Silverbulletday Stakes and the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds, she received very rough and unfavorable trips – in fact, she clipped heels badly turning for home in the Rachel Alexandra, losing all chance at challenging.

Part of me wonders if Souper Sensational will ultimately prove best as a sprinter, but I’m willing to give her another chance in the Fair Grounds Oaks. A top-three finish at a big price could be a possibility if she finally receives a clean and unencumbered journey.

Travel Column

Although Travel Column was beaten a neck by Clairiere in the Rachel Alexandra, I believe she can turn the tables in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Watching the replay of the Rachel Alexandra, I wonder if Travel Column lost focus when the runaway pacesetter gave way suddenly on the far turn, leaving Travel Column in command of the lead with five-sixteenths of a mile remaining.

Keep in mind, Travel Column doesn’t have to be a pace player – in the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall, she rallied from dead last to defeat Clairiere by one length. The outcome of the Fair Grounds Oaks may come down to a tale of two trips – whoever makes the last move may have the edge.