Horses to watch: Who prevails between Charlatan, Knicks Go?

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

New to the Watch List

Superstition

Just how much the best was Superstition in Monday’s Wishing Well Stakes at Santa Anita? The result chart reveals she won the 6 1/2-furlong turf sprint by 1 1/2 lengths over 2020 Grade 1 Jaipur winner Oleksandra, but the end margin doesn’t tell the whole story.

To understand the strength of Superstition’s effort, one must review how she raced in second place behind blazing fractions of 20.75 and 43.03 before pouncing to the front in the homestretch. Then, one must note how Superstition forged on gamely down the lane to comfortably defeat a trio of deep closers – she was the only pace player to hang around at the finish.

In short, this was an excellent effort from Superstition, and a big step forward off her troubled defeat in the Las Cienegas (G3) last month. The Richard Mandella trainee is getting good and should be a force to reckon with in 2021.

Recent Winners

Elle Z

It’s becoming clear that Elle Z is more than just a talented turf sprinter – she’s a talented sprinter, period. Switching to dirt for an off-the-turf renewal of the Mardi Gras Stakes at Fair Grounds proved to be no obstacle at all for the daughter of City Zip. After sprinting to the front through modest splits of 23.07 and 45.95, Elle Z kicked on strongly down the lane, dashing the fifth furlong in 11.65 and the final sixteenth in 6.21 to beat multiple stakes winner Into Mystic by four lengths.

Having proven her ability to handle dirt as well as turf, Elle Z will have plenty of options for the remainder of 2021. She just keeps getting better and figures to win her fair share of stakes races this season.

Upcoming Entries

The world’s richest horse race, the $20 million Saudi Cup on Saturday at Riyadh, has drawn a strong field befitting its lucrative purse. A bevy of graded stakes winners have been entered in the 1,800-meter race, including two formidable speedsters: Charlatan and Knicks Go.

The Saudi Cup is widely considered to be a match race between these formidable favorites, but which one will prevail? They’re both members of my watch list, so let’s take a quick look at their credentials:

Charlatan

This sensational Bob Baffert trainee has crossed the wire first in all four of his starts, including a six-length romp in a division of the 2020 Arkansas Derby (G1). While Charlatan was ultimately disqualified after testing positive for an excessive amount of lidocaine, his performance remains eye-catching on paper – he carved out fast fractions of 22.88, 46.08, and 1:09.68 before drawing off to win for fun.

But Charlatan was even more impressive when returning from an injury-induced layoff in the Dec. 26 Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita. Cutting back to seven furlongs, Charlatan showed a new dimension settling in second place behind fast fractions of 21.81 and 43.95. Then he seized command with a sudden burst of speed and roared clear to score by 4 1/2 lengths over next-out San Pasqual (G2) winner Express Train.

In the Saudi Cup, Charlatan has drawn post nine, four slots wider than Knicks Go. This should allow Charlatan to enjoy a perfect trip stalking his key rival, replicating his Malibu strategy and setting the stage for another victory.

Knicks Go

A three-time Grade 1 winner, Knicks Go has gone 4-for-4 since transferring to the care of Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. A pure front-runner, Knicks Go used his sensational speed to dominate the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup (G1) in back-to-back starts, even while carving out blazing six-furlong splits of 1:08.25 and 1:09.91.

The only question now is whether Knicks Go can wheel back on four weeks of rest, ship across the world to Saudi Arabia, and reproduce his A-game while being tracked by the menacing presence of Charlatan. It’s shaping up to be a tricky task, and for the record I believe Charlatan is the more likely winner. But no one has figured out how to catch Knicks Go since the son of Paynter entered Cox’s care, and his brilliant front-running speed could very well win the day again.

Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?