Horses to Watch: Ward juvenile shines at Keeneland
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the watch list
Perfect Shances
Perfect Shances made an excellent visual impression when debuting in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies on April 11 at Keeneland. Set she fractions of 22.88 and 46.41 seconds over a sloppy track and pulled away under a light hand ride in the homestretch to win by 4 3/4 lengths in 52.86 seconds.
Trained by Wesley Ward, Perfect Shances is the first winner sired by Shancelot, runner-up in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Sprint and a blazingly fast 12 1/2-length winner of the Grade 2 Amsterdam that same year. Don’t be surprised if Perfect Shances wins a stakes before 2024 is over.
Worth another try
Highland Falls
Put forth a good try in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) at Oaklawn, rallying from fifth place to finish second by two lengths against six-time graded stakes winner Skippylongstocking. Highland Falls ran his final furlong in about 11.94 seconds and pulled three lengths clear of last-out New Orleans Classic (G2) winner Red Route One, so I’ll view his effort in a positive light.
Judge Miller started as the 3-10 favorite when making his stakes debut in the Californian (G2) at Santa Anita, but after carving out modest fractions of 24.67, 48.75 and 1:12.78, he faltered to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths against Native Diver (G3) winner Mr Fisk. This marked a step backward from Judge Miller’s 11-length demolition of a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita two starts back, a contest in which he dueled through fast fractions of 23.17, 46.39 and 1:09.82, so I’ll give him a chance to rebound before dropping him from my watch list.
Although 3-year-old filly In Theory was beaten to third place in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance on Sunday at Santa Anita, she ran a deceptively good race. After stumbling at the start and falling to the back of a five-horse field, In Theory advanced into the teeth of a second quarter-mile that elapsed in a strong 22.89 seconds. In Theory’s rally carried her all the way to the lead before she flattened out in the drive to finish three lengths behind Tambo, who led for most of the journey.
Since In Theory was racing for only the second time, I’m willing to forgive this defeat and try her again next time.
Off the watch list
Scylla
Suffered her second straight defeat when coming home third as the favorite in the Doubledogdare (G3) at Keeneland, losing ground down the homestretch to finish 4 3/4 lengths behind decisive winner Raging Sea. Scylla has lost a bit of sparkle since returning from a long layoff, and I’ll want to see her get back in the winner’s circle before supporting her again.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.