Horses to Watch: Ward first-timer romps at Keeneland
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have caught his eye recently and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the watch list
The first U.S. juvenile race of 2024 went to Shoot It True, a Wesley Ward trainee who sold for $340,000 as a yearling. The daughter of Munnings obliterated a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Friday at Keeneland, opening up a four-length lead through an opening quarter-mile in 21.89 seconds before widening her advantage to win by 7 1/2 lengths in 52.04 seconds. Could Royal Ascot be in her future?
After giving it some thought, I’m going to add Vlahos to my watch list. The son of Kantharos was much the best in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on March 9 at Santa Anita, setting blazing fractions of 21.47 and 43.69 seconds before drawing clear to win by 4 1/2 lengths in the fast time of 1:15.75. His performance was flattered when third-place finisher Ball Don’t Lie returned to win a quick six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last Saturday.
Vlahos has since been privately purchased and transferred from trainer Luis Mendez to Doug O’Neill. Daily Racing Form reports the Pat Day Mile (G2) on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs is next on the agenda.
Recent watch list winners
Alva Starr
Alva Starr is an early leader among female sprinters this year after winning the seven-furlong Madison (G1) at Keeneland in determined fashion. Never more than a length behind fractions of 21.98 and 45.01, Alva Starr opened up a two-length lead in the homestretch, then dug deep to hold off Raven Run (G2) winner Vahva and prevail by half a length in 1:23.36. She’s now 2-for-2 this season, having previously won the American Beauty at Oaklawn.
Fandom
Unraced since Royal Ascot in 2023, Wesley Ward’s Fandom brought his U.S. record to 2-for-2 with a victory in the Palisades at Keeneland. Overlooked at 7-1 in the 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-olds, Fandom raced in fifth behind splits of 21.59 and 44.53 seconds, then gobbled up ground down the homestretch to score by a neck in 1:02.83.
Leslie's Rose
Bouncing back from a third-place finish in the Davona Dale (G2), Leslie’s Rose brought her career tally to 3-for-4 with an upset victory in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. She tracked fractions of 24.35, 48.27 and 1:12.05 from just behind the leaders, then took over in the homestretch to beat reigning champion 2-year-old filly Just F Y I by three lengths, completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.85. She’s shaping up as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Nothing Like You
Starlet (G2) winner Nothing Like You shrugged off a disappointing run in the Las Virgenes (G3) to obliterate the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita. Under renowned jockey Frankie Dettori, Nothing Like You rated in third place through fractions of 23.42, 46.88 and 1:10.72 before bursting past heavy favorite Kinza to draw clear and dominate by 7 1/2 lengths. Nothing Like You completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.21 and is clearly back to her best.
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone almost refused to enter the starting gate for the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, but once the race got going he was all business, launching a sweeping rally from ninth place to beat the promising Gotham (G3) runner-up Just a Touch by 1 1/2 lengths. A decelerating pace helped Sierra Leone catch up, but the speed at which he gained ground was eye-catching, and his final time of 1:50.08 translated to a respectable 98 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. He heads to the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites.
Worth another try
Be You
Never factored in the Blue Grass, racing off the pace on his way to seventh place by 10 3/4 lengths. But Be You has run some of his best races sprinting, so I’ll watch and see if he can successfully cut back in distance down the road.
Booth
Booth has struggled a bit with consistency and misfired as the favorite in the Lafayette at Keeneland, fading to finish fifth by 7 3/4 lengths as the 6-5 favorite. He’d previously trounced a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn by 4 1/4 lengths, so I won’t write off Booth just yet.
Doncho
Dominated his first two starts by daylight margins, but regressed in the Lafayette, finishing fourth by 5 1/2 lengths after tracking splits of 22.28 and 44.98 seconds. I won’t dismiss Doncho off one defeat.
Faustin
Runner-up in the 2023 San Vicente (G2) on dirt, Faustin returned from a 14-month layoff with a decent try in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile over the Santa Anita lawn on Saturday. Making his turf and route debut, the Bob Baffert trainee pressed fractions of 23.05, 46.59 and 1:10.86 before running his final quarter-mile in approximately 23.98 seconds to finish second by half a length against stakes winner Aligato. The winning time was a decent 1:33.84, so I’ll view Faustin’s comeback run in a positive light.
Just a Touch
Ran a strong race in the Blue Grass, tracking fractions of 23.15, 46.48 and 1:10.83 from second place before staying on for second place. Just a Touch pulled 3 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and is progressing in a positive direction for trainer Brad Cox.
Kinza
Faltered as the 1-2 favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks, carving out the pace before failing to respond against Nothing Like You’s powerful finish. However, Kinza did stay on for second place and had previously defeated Nothing Like You in the Las Virgenes, so I’ll give her a chance to bounce back next time.
Pounce
The Herecomesthebride (G3) winner ran way below expectations as the favorite in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland, tracking the pace before giving way in the drive to finish 11th by 11 1/4 lengths. This was such a step backward from Pounce that I’m willing to assume something went wrong.
Tuscan Sky
Faltered when making his stakes debut in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, finishing seventh, but this marked a sharp regression from Tuscan Sky’s previous form. I’ll see if he rebounds next time.
Off the watch list
Austere
Suffered her third straight graded stakes defeat when finishing sixth in the Appalachian. I’ll want to see Austere deliver a victory before returning her to my watch list.
Pirate
Last year’s Hopeful (G1) third-place finisher ended a long layoff with a subpar showing as the favorite in a six-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Keeneland, finishing fourth by five lengths. It wasn’t the effort I’d hoped for in Pirate’s 3-year-old debut.
Winterfell
Finishing third in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Santa Anita was an improvement from Winterfell’s fifth-place debut, but he was still beaten 5 3/4 lengths. It’s possible stretching out in distance will help Winterfell down the road, but until he breaks through with a stronger performance I’ll drop him from my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.