Horses to Watch: Two Phil’s impresses in Kentucky Derby

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Repo Rocks

Repo Rocks dominated racing at Parx and Aqueduct during the winter, winning four consecutive stakes. He was particularly impressive in the seven-furlong Toboggan (G3), dominating by 8 1/2 lengths with a powerful 111 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form.

Repo Rocks regressed when finishing a dull second in the April 8 Carter Handicap (G1) at Aqueduct, but the 5-year-old gelding bounced back in a big way when tackling Friday’s Westchester (G3) at Belmont Park. After tracking and pressing splits of 22.99 and 45.80 seconds, Repo Rocks took command and drew off to beat Grade 1 winner Zandon by 5 1/4 lengths in the snappy time of 1:34.96 seconds, earning a 109 Beyer Speed Figure.

At this point, there’s no telling how good Repo Rocks might be. Proving he can produce a giant Beyer away from Aqueduct is a sign we’re looking at a horse with Grade 1 ability. The Metropolitan Handicap (G1) looks like a viable goal.

Two Phil’s

Mage (see below) won the Kentucky Derby, but you can argue Two Phil’s ran every bit as well. The early fractions of 22.35, 45.73 and 1:10.11 were hot enough to burn out every speed horse except Two Phil’s. Never more than 3 1/4 lengths behind, Two Phil’s made an early bid to take the lead through a swift mile in 1:36.06 seconds, then fought on gamely down the homestretch to finish second by one length.

Just how destructive was the early pace? The three leaders after half a mile were Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Verifying, Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Kingsbarns and Sham (G3) hero Reincarnate, talented colts who retreated to finish 16th, 14th, and 13th. Two Phil’s rated only 1 1/2 lengths behind that half-mile while the rest of the superfecta finishers raced at least 9 3/4 lengths behind, so taking the destructive pace into account, Two Phil’s ran a giant race.

Recent watch list winners

Bo Cruz

Fair Grounds maiden winner easily stepped up in class for a $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles on Saturday at Churchill Downs, leading all the way through splits of 24.11, 47.96 and 1:11.56 before drawing off to in by three lengths in 1:43.07 seconds. This Al Stall trainee looks bound for stakes company.

Cody’s Wish

Kicked off 2023 on a powerful note, launching a last-to-first rally to dominate seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero dashed his final three furlongs in about 35.2 seconds to record his third consecutive Grade 1 win. If Cody’s Wish meets up with Repo Rocks in the Metropolitan Handicap, that would be an exciting showdown to wrap up the spring season.

Didia

Argentinean-bred mare picked up her seventh straight victory and brought her U.S. record to a perfect 4-for-4 with a decisive score in the Modesty (G3). After tracking decent fractions of 23.25, 47.84 and 1:11.58 from third place, Didia accelerated sharply and edged clear to win the 1 1/8-mile contest by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:47.46 seconds.

Federal Judge

Oaklawn debut winner brought his record to a perfect 2-for-2 with victory in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Federal Judge pressed and then led through sharp fractions of 22.09 and 44.91 seconds before seizing a clear lead and digging deep late to beat favored Extra Anejo by one length, completing 6 1/2 furlongs in a solid 1:16.08 seconds.

Mage

Breaking slowly proved to be a blessing in disguise for Mage in the Kentucky Derby, as the lightly raced colt rated more than a dozen lengths off a hot pace before launching a sweeping rally to win by one length in 2:01.57 seconds. Mage gained a ton of ground around the far turn and showed tenacity to wear down Two Phil’s in the drive, in the process securing his first victory at the graded stakes level.

Matareya

After finishing second in her 2023 debut over a wet track at Oaklawn, Matareya bounced back to peak form in the Derby City Distaff (G1), pressing the early pace before taking over and holding off talented rivals Wicked Halo and Goodnight Olive to prevail by one length. The Brad Cox trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:21.87 to record her fourth graded victory and her second triumph at the Grade 1 level.

Smile Happy

Returning to the site of his 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) victory, Smile Happy was an impressive winner of the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs, vying for command through increasingly stiff splits of 24.30, 47.80 and 1:11.50 before kicked on to win by two lengths. Smile Happy rocketed the final five-sixteenths of a mile in 29.79 seconds to record a final time of 1:41.29 seconds, earning a powerful 110 Beyer Speed Figure.

Touchuponastar

Louisiana-bred standout dominated the Evangeline Downs Classic, leading essentially all the way to trounce four rivals by 9 1/4 lengths. He completed one mile in 1:37.87 to secure his sixth straight victory and his fourth stakes triumph.

Worth another try

Amazing Grace

Although Amazing Grace finished last out of four in the Sheepshead Bay (G2) at Belmont Park, trailing the field through extremely slow fractions of 27.07, 54.78, 1:23.50 and 1:49.77 over a good course surely compromised her chances. The final three furlongs elapsed in a blazing 33.80 seconds, so Amazing Grace never had a realistic chance to catch up.

Big Invasion

Didn’t get a clear run while finishing out of the trifecta for the first time in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2). Big Invasion had to check hard while rallying between rivals and never did find an open path down the homestretch, so we’ll draw a line through his seventh-place finish.

Botanical

Broke slowly and got squeezed between rivals at the start of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), dropping back to eighth place before tiring from there to finish a distant 13th. Botanical normally employs pacesetting or tracking tactics and had never run on dirt before, so experiencing kickback for the first time may have come as a shock. We’ll draw a line through this effort and give Botanical a chance to bounce back.

Carl Spackler

Faltered as the favorite in the American Turf (G2), fading from a tracking position to finish eighth by 4 1/2 lengths. Carl Spackler showed enough promise in his first two starts that we’ll give him an opportunity to bounce back.

Extra Anejo

Put up a good try against Federal Judge, rallying after a mildly slow start to finish second by one length. Extra Anejo gained 1 1/2 lengths through the final furlong and can’t be judged too harshly off his first race in nearly seven months.

Far Bridge

Just barely came up short when making his stakes debut in the American Turf, failing by a nose to outkick Webslinger in a driving finish. Far Bridge ran gamely through tight quarters down the homestretch and remains one of the most promising young turf horses in the country.

Goodnight Olive

Lacked racing room down the homestretch of the Derby City Distaff and ultimately settled for third place, beaten two lengths. We’ll never know if Goodnight Olive would have won with a clear trip, but one thing is certain, she didn’t have an opportunity to show her best. This defeat under challenging circumstances is worth forgiving.

Hit Show

Ran a fine race from the rail draw in the Kentucky Derby, sticking closer to the early pace (within 5 1/2 lengths) than most of the other top finishers before staying on to finish fifth by 6 1/4 lengths. Hit Show has lost two straight races, but he ran well enough in the Derby to warrant another try next time.

Munnys Gold

After setting fractions of 22.67 and 45.11 seconds in the seven-furlong Eight Belles (G2), Munnys Gold was passed by Red Carpet Ready and dropped 1 1/2 lengths behind at the eighth pole. The race appeared over, but Munnys Gold tenaciously battled back to miss by a head, a fine try in her first defeat from four starts.

Tapit Trice

Couldn’t keep up with the fast early pace in the Kentucky Derby, falling back to last place before rallying belatedly to finish seventh by 9 1/4 lengths. Facing a smaller field and a (presumably) slower pace in the Belmont five weeks from now should be a perfect fit for Tapit Trice.

West Will Power

Put up a good try in the Alysheba, setting the pace before weakening in the final three furlongs to finish third by 2 3/4 lengths. Given the strong final time posted by Smile Happy, West Will Power actually ran quite fast in defeat.

Off the watch list

Cairo Consort

Classy Edition

Derma Sotogake

Silver Knott

Society

Speak of the Devil

Verifying

Which horses do you have your eyes on?

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.