Horses to Watch: Track 3 stakes horses, 1 exciting debut runner

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

New to the watch list

Winterfell

I don’t typically add unraced horses to my watch list, but I’ll make an exception for Winterfell. The Triple Crown-nominated son of champion Arrogate has been training up a storm at Santa Anita for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Half a mile from the starting gate in 47.6 seconds… a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in one minute… six furlongs in a snappy 1:12.4 seconds... and five furlongs from the starting gate in 59.8 seconds.

Purchased for $400,000 as a yearling, Winterfell is 3 years old now and will make his belated debut in Saturday’s fourth race at Santa Anita, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, with post time at 5:00 p.m. EST. I’m optimistic Winterfell will fire a strong shot in his first run under colors, with even better to come down the road.

Upcoming entries

Austere

Austere showed promise as a juvenile. The daughter of Mendelssohn finished fast to win her debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park, then took the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies and finished fifth (beaten only two lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Austere will kick off her 3-year-old campaign in Saturday’s 10th race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Florida Oaks (G3) at 4:45 p.m. EST. A quality field has turned out, but Austere is the only turf stakes winner in the field and has to be ranked as the filly to beat.

Kinza

At the moment, Kinza looks like the fastest 3-year-old dirt filly in California. Trained by Bob Baffert, Kinza dominated her debut sprinting six furlongs at Santa Anita, then won the one-mile Las Virgenes (G3) by two lengths over Santa Ynez (G3) winner Kopion. Those victories yielded promising Brisnet Speed ratings of 95 and 92.

With these strong form lines under her belt, Kinza looks tough to beat in Saturday’s sixth race at Santa Anita, the Santa Ysabel (G3), set for 6:00 p.m. EST. Regular jockey Juan Hernandez (the leading rider at Santa Anita this winter) retains the mount, and if Kinza shows her typical speed a gate-to-wire victory is likely in the offing.

Star Fortress

Former British campaigner Star Fortress impressed when making her U.S. debut in the Cardinal (G3) at Churchill Downs last fall, swooping from off the pace to dominate by 10 lengths over a field including next-out Blushing K. D. winner Lovely Princess. This performance stamped Star Fortress among the favorites for the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G2) at Gulfstream Park, but a slow pace and early traffic trouble compromised Star Fortress and she finished last of 11.

On the bright side, Star Fortress was beaten only five lengths in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf. If she gets a faster pace and a cleaner trip in Saturday’s ninth race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Hillsborough (G2), with post time at 4:12 p.m. EST, she’s eligible to rebound in a big way.