Horses to watch: 3 Kentucky Derby contenders to follow
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Upcoming entries
Charlatan earned all the accolades when dominating the seven-furlong Malibu stakes (G1) last month, but runner-up Express Train ran a big race in his own right, charging hard to finish second by 4 1/2 lengths. The son of Union Rags has always shown ability, and he will attempt to secure his first graded stakes victory when facing a small field in Saturday’s fifth race at Santa Anita, the San Pasqual (G2, post time 5:33 p.m. EST).
It is possible the 1 1/8-mile distance of the San Pasqual will push the limits of Express Train’s stamina, considering his best efforts have come running a mile or less. But Express Train has been rounding nicely into form and should enjoy a fair pace setup Saturday, setting the stage for a career-best effort if he handles the distance.
Frank’s Rockette
Frank’s Rockette enjoyed a highly productive 3-year-old season, winning five of her seven starts. She was so dominant toward the end of the season – including trouncing older rivals in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (G2) – that trainer Bill Mott opted to run her against males in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where she finished 11th after winding up farther off the pace than usual.
Frank’s Rockette will return to action in Saturday’s eighth race at Oaklawn Park, the American Beauty Stakes (post time 5:40 p.m. EST). She is facing a deep field led by the multiple Grade 1-placed Amy’s Challenge, but Frank’s Rockette figures to enjoy a perfect stalking trip from post 5, and I am optimistic she will make her 4-year-old debut a winning one.
Hot Rod Charlie
Hot Rod Charlie nearly delivered a 94-1 upset for our watch list when finishing second against an elite field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Doug O’Neill trainee was beaten less than a length by champion 2-year-old Essential Quality after making an arguably premature rally into a fast pace.
Hot Rod Charlie has improved significantly since adding blinkers and stretching out around two turns on dirt. All these variables will remain the same when Hot Rod Charlie makes his 3-year-old debut in Saturday’s seventh race at Santa Anita, the Robert B. Lewis (G3, post time 6:37 p.m. EST). There isn’t a ton of pace on paper in the 1 1/16-mile race, so don’t be surprised if Hot Rod Charlie shows a bit more tactical speed under hot jockey Joel Rosario. Even off the layoff, a strong effort should be in the offing.
Idol
Express Train’s stiffest competition in the San Pasqual may come from Idol, a stoutly bred son of Curlin who figures to relish the 1 1/8-mile distance. A runaway allowance winner racing 1 3/16 miles at Churchill Downs last fall, Idol most recently fired off a gutsy effort in the 1 1/16-mile San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita, battling through tight quarters along the rail to finish second by half a length.
Idol is bred to improve with maturity, so with just four starts under his belt, he still has plenty of upside. I’m excited to see what he can accomplish against a quality field in the San Pasqual.
Medina Spirit
Sold for just $35,000 as a 2-year-old, Medina Spirit has already earned back his purchase price. After posting a sharp debut victory sprinting at Los Alamitos, Medina Spirit fired off a determined effort in the one-mile Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, battling to finish second by less than a length against early Kentucky Derby favorite Life Is Good.
I am confident Medina Spirit will take another step forward while facing a deep field in the Robert B. Lewis. The son of Protonico is training well for eight-time Lewis-winning trainer Bob Baffert and brings strong Beyer and Brisnet figures to the equation. He also has enough tactical speed to secure a forwardly placed trip in this seemingly paceless race, setting the stage for a big effort.
Kentucky Pharoah
Two starts on turf, two flashy victories. Kentucky Pharoah has been an untouchable speed demon over the Gulfstream Park turf course, most recently wiring the one-mile Dania Beach Stakes by three lengths.
Kentucky Pharoah will stick to the same course and distance for Saturday’s fourth race at Gulfstream Park, the Kitten’s Joy (G3, post time 1:10 p.m. EST). The son of American Pharoah could face a pace challenge from the undefeated Central Park Stakes winner Never Surprised, but I believe Kentucky Pharoah has more speed and will win the battle for early supremacy, setting the stage for another gate-to-wire triumph.
Prime Factor
Granted, Prime Factor is taking a big step up in class and distance for Saturday’s 11th race at Gulfstream Park, the Holy Bull (G3, post time 4:50 p.m. EST). Last-out sprint winners unproven over a mile have struggled since the Holy Bull became a two-turn race in 2013, winning just one of eight renewals.
But if any horse can defy inexperience and claim victory in the Holy Bull, it’s probably Prime Factor. Sold for $900,000 as a yearling, the son of Quality Road was an eye-catching debut winner sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream last month, drawing away to win by 8 3/4 lengths. Prime Factor has been breezing strongly for hot trainer Todd Pletcher and retains the services of top jockey Irad Ortiz, so a promising stakes debut should be on the horizon.
War Stopper
Ortiz and Pletcher have been on fire together over the last two months, winning at a 33-percent rate. They can keep their momentum going with War Stopper in Sunday’s tenth race at Gulfstream Park, a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race (post time 4:45 p.m. EST).
War Stopper has shown improvement since adding blinkers and was particularly sharp in a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream last month, his first start under Pletcher’s care. After carving out a quick pace, the son of Declaration of War edged away to win by three lengths with a 98 Brisnet Speed Rating, the highest last-out figure in Sunday’s field.
In a race without a ton of speed on paper, I expect War Stopper to post another convincing victory, setting the stage for a jump into stakes company.