Horses to Watch: Support these 2 Europeans at the Breeders’ Cup
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
The British-bred 3-year-old filly Nashwa has been a force to reckon with against quality competition in Europe this year. She couldn’t quite get the job done over 1 1/2 miles when finishing third in the Epsom Oaks (G1), but since cutting back to 1 5/16 miles or less, she’s posted back-to-back wins in the Prix de Diane (G1) and Nassau (G1) in addition to finishing a close second in the Prix de l’Opera (G1).
Nashwa is highly versatile as far as ground preferences are concerned, so whether the Keeneland turf course is firm or soft for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Nashwa should handle the conditions just fine. Co-trainer John Gosden is no stranger to success at the Breeders’ Cup, winning five races dating back to the inaugural Breeders’ Cup in 1984, so look for Nashwa to fire a strong shot in her U.S. debut.
When trainer Charlie Appleby enters a horse at the Breeders’ Cup, it’s wise to sit up a take notice. Appleby won three Breeders’ Cup events in 2022, bringing his lifetime record at the Breeders’ Cup to six wins from 11 starters.
That’s why I’m adding Appleby’s Silver Knott to my watch list. The Godolphin colorbearer is reportedly on track for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race Appleby has won three times previously with Outstrip (2013), Line of Duty (2018), and Modern Games (2021).
Just like Outstrip and Modern Games, Silver Knott has competed over the left-handed course at Doncaster, finishing third in the Champagne (G2). Also identical to Outstrip and Modern Games, Silver Knott wrapped up his Breeders’ Cup preparations at Newmarket, rallying to post a neck victory in the one-mile Autumn (G3). Assuming the turf course doesn’t come up soft at Keeneland, Silver Knott should have every chance to emulate his Appleby-trained predecessors and secure a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf victory.
Off the Watch List
Unraced since finishing fifth in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Averly Jane is entered as a broodmare prospect (rather than a broodmare or racing prospect) in the 2022 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, suggesting she has been retired from racing.
Behave Virginia started her career with great promise, winning her debut in the spring of 2021 at Churchill Downs before coming right back to win the Debutante S. in a fast time over the same track. But unfortunately, Behave Virginia hasn’t posted a workout since the Debutante, a span of time that has stretched to nearly 16 months. She seems unlikely to make a comeback at this point.
More than a year has passed since Great Island finished fifth in the 2021 E. P. Taylor (G1), her most recent start. She hasn’t posted a timed workout since then, so it appears unlikely Great Island will return to the track. The timing of her last race suggests she may have been retired to the broodmare ranks.
Which horses do you have your eyes on?