Horses to Watch: 4 Keeneland winners join the list
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping Watch List, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
I’m not sure why Chez Pierre misfired to finish sixth in the Tampa Bay (G3) in February, because that defeat is clearly an outlier on his otherwise perfect record. The 5-year-old French-bred gelding made that perfectly clear when he rebounded to dominate the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland, boosting his lifetime tally to six wins from seven starts.
The Arnaud Delacour trainee was spectacular in the one-mile grass contest. After dashing to the lead through an opening quarter-mile in 23.67 seconds, Chez Pierre backed off and allowed Dr. Zempf to seize a two-length advantage through half a mile in 47.66 seconds.
But then Chez Pierre unleashed a remarkably fast finish. He ran his third quarter-mile in about 22.89 seconds to challenge Dr Zempf through six furlongs in 1:10.80. Then Chez Pierre blazed the final two furlongs in about 11.03 and 11.55 seconds to draw off and beat Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Modern Games by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:33.46, a stakes record.
Now that Chez Pierre is back to his winning ways, there’s no telling how good he might be. His Maker’s Mark Mile score was brilliant, and the future looks bright.
Arguably the most impressive 2-year-old winner so far at the Keeneland spring meet is Hibernacle, a daughter of Hootenanny bred, owned and trained by Wesley Ward. She debuted in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight last Wednesday and left no doubt about her superiority, tracking an opening quarter-mile in 22.32 seconds before seizing command and powering clear to win by 7 1/2 lengths in 52.39 seconds. Surely a stakes start is next on the horizon?
Did you see Saudi Crown’s debut victory on Sunday at Keeneland? The Brad Cox trainee trounced a six-furlong maiden special weight with the authority of a future stakes star. After tracking favorite Briterdaysahead through fractions of 22.29 and 45.25 seconds, Saudi Crown advanced to challenge through five furlongs in 57.51 seconds. Then he hit a completely different gear, opening up with surprising suddenness to win by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:10.01 seconds.
As a son of Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming out of a mare by three-time leading North American sire Tapit, Saudi Crown is bred to shine running long. The fact he won his debut sprinting is, perhaps, a sign of serious talent.
Only time will tell if Scylla can achieve as much as her full brother Tacitus, who was runner-up in the Belmont and third in the Kentucky Derby. But she got off to a good start in a six-furlong maiden special weight Saturday at Keeneland.
A daughter of Tapit out of the champion filly Close Hatches, Scylla is bred to run long and wasn’t in any hurry during the early stages of Saturday’s sprint, settling in eighth place by 5 1/4 lengths through an opening quarter-mile in 22.50 seconds. But she gained 3 3/4 lengths through a second quarter-mile in 23.81 seconds (resulting in a half-mile in 46.31 seconds), and then she rocketed her final quarter-mile in about 23.84 seconds to draw off and win by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:10.32.
Scylla’s strong finishing fraction suggests she has upside for improvement under the care of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Keep a close eye on this Juddmonte homebred.
Recent Watch List winners
First Mission could have thrown in the towel down the homestretch of the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. After tracking early splits of 24.12, 48.01 and 1:12.48 set by Arabian Lion, First Mission attempted to rally inside the leader, only to have Arabian Lion drift inward and sharply narrow the gap.
But First Mission never gave up, rallying gamely through tight quarters to beat Arabian Lion by half a length in 1:43.74 for 1 1/16 miles. This improving Brad Cox trainee has been mentioned as a possible Preakness contender and looks like a great fit for the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Love Reigns ran into traffic while attempting to rally inside of rivals in the Limestone sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland turf course. But when the 3-year-old filly found racing room, she surged boldly to win by half a length in 1:02.45 seconds.
This was an eye-catching performance, especially when you consider Love Reigns hadn’t started since finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November. Trainer Wesley Ward has indicated Royal Ascot in England could be next on the agenda for Love Reigns, who finished fourth against a large field in Royal Ascot’s Queen Mary (G2) last year.
Victory was never really in doubt for Twilight Gleaming in the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland. In her return from a six-month layoff, the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner pressed quick fractions of 21.68 and 44.39 seconds before unleashing a sharp burst of acceleration to draw off and win the 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint by 1 1/2 lengths.
Twilight Gleaming dashed the fifth furlong in 11.29 seconds and the final sixteenth in 6.06 seconds to record a fast final time of 1:01.74. As with Love Reigns, a trip to Royal Ascot could be in the cards for this talented 4-year-old filly.
Worth another try
Modern Games suffered his first North American defeat when beaten to second place in the Maker’s Mark Mile, but I won’t judge this effort too harshly. In his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile last November, Modern Games gained three lengths into Chez Pierre’s strong closing fractions. This was a deceptively good performance, so I’ll give Modern Games another try next time.
Although Strobe was beaten to second place in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn, he ran well in his stakes debut. Showing a new dimension rating as many as 3 1/2 lengths behind a fast pace, Strobe raced wide around the turn but gained ground steadily down the homestretch to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind a gate-to-wire winner. This is an effort Strobe can build upon.
The pace of the 1 1/16-mile Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland wasn’t testing by any means, with multiple Grade 1 winner In Italian carving out splits of 23.63, 47.29 and 1:10.66 over a firm and fast-playing turf course. That didn’t give White Frost the best setup to win from midfield, but she nevertheless battled on down the homestretch to finish third by 4 1/4 lengths.
White Frost might not be up to winning at the Grade 1 level right now, but a Grade 2 or Grade 3 score could be well within reach this year. And who’s to say she won’t improve as the year goes on, particularly if she gets a better pace setup?
Off the Watch List
Damon’s Mound, Disarm, Dr Zempf
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.