Horses to Watch: Older horses take the spotlight
New to the watch list
Flying Drummer
Flying Drummer lost three of his four starts as a juvenile in 2021. He didn’t race in 2022 and went 0-for-2 in 2023. But the 5-year-old gelding has turned into a different horse since returning from a seventh-month layoff in January.
Flying Drummer’s comeback came in a 1 1/16-mile, $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita, which he trounced by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:43.07. Then he upped his game to another level in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Santa Anita on Friday, tracking splits of 23.11, 47.27 and 1:11.37 before roaring away to win by 9 1/2 lengths in 1:37.05.
Those victories yielded improving Brisnet Speed Ratings of 93 and 96. At this point, Flying Drummer looks ready to join the graded-stakes ranks for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.
R Calli Kim
Upon further reflection, I’m adding to my watch list R Calli Kim, who won the March 2 The Very One (G3) at Gulfstream Park. The Brendan Walsh trainee has prevailed in five of her last six starts, including the Long Island (G3) in November at Aqueduct, and her breathtaking performance in the The Very One suggests R Calli Kim can be the dominant long-distance grass mare in the U.S. this year.
In the The Very One, R Calli Kim settled in eighth place behind fractions of 23.47, 47.98, 1:14.45 and 1:38.15, but she gained ground at every call. Even as the pace accelerated around the final turn and down the homestretch, R Calli Kim continued her progress, and she rallied from sixth place by 1 3/4 lengths at the eighth pole to first place by two lengths at the finish line.
R Calli Kim blazed her final furlong in approximately 10.99 seconds, a terrific fraction coming at the end of a 1 3/8-mile race with a decent pace. It was even better than her approximately 11.13-second final furlong from the Long Island. At the age of 7, R Calli Kim appears poised for a career-best season.
Recent watch list winners
Kinza
Undefeated 3-year-old filly Kinza brought her career record to 3-for-3 with a decisive victory in the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita. Setting hot fractions of 22.52, 45.98 and 1:10.55 didn’t stop the Bob Baffert trainee from kicking away down the homestretch to win by five lengths in 1:44.16 seconds. She’s a standout among California’s sophomore dirt fillies this winter and is shaping up as a formidable favorite for the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), should her connections choose to target that April 6 prize.
Worth another try
Austere
Austere didn’t get a clean trip when kicking off her 3-year-old campaign in the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. She had to wait in traffic at a key point around the far turn and continued to lack sufficient room while racing in tight quarters down the homestretch. Despite these obstacles, Austere closed ground to finish fifth by 1 3/4 lengths. With a clear run, I think she would have finished much closer and possibly challenged for victory.
Winterfell
Winterfell ran below expectations when debuting as the favorite in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Santa Anita, finishing fifth by 13 lengths. But Winterfell raced only a neck behind a blazing opening quarter-mile in 21.47 seconds, and the final time of 1:15.75 was fast, so it’s possible the race was simply too sharp for Winterfell at this point in time. The son of Arrogate has the pedigree to improve with distance and maturity, so I’ll give Winterfell another try next time.
Off the watch list
Star Fortress
Recorded a second straight off-the-board finish when coming home fifth out of six in the Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs. Until Star Fortress bounces back to the form of her blowout Cardinal (G3) triumph from the fall, I’ll drop her from my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.