Horses to Watch: 7 weekend starters include Derby prospects

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Upcoming entries

Agate Road

Agate Road has spent most of his career competing on turf, sandwiching a win in the Grade 2 Pilgrim and a pace-compromised second in the Dania Beach around a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. But he actually debuted on dirt at Saratoga, finishing second by a neck in a maiden special weight after breaking poorly, so he’s a viable win threat returning to dirt for Saturday’s 10th race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Sam F. Davis (G3) at 5:15 p.m. EST.

Booth

Booth ran fantastically in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland, leading all the way to win by 5 1/4 lengths over next-out winner Nash, who since has placed in multiple road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. Booth subsequently faltered to fifth place as a heavy favorite in the Ed Brown at Churchill Downs, but he’s been freshened since November and is eligible to bounce back adding Lasix for Sunday’s third race at Oaklawn, a six-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at 2:35 p.m. EST.

Change of Command

Change of Command has made slow but steady progress for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. After three early defeats against tough competition including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness, Change of Command shipped from New York to Florida and rattled off back-to-back wins in maiden special weight and $75,000 allowance optional claiming races. He’s adding blinkers for the Sam F. Davis and looks ready to give Agate Road and others a tussle for first prize.

Endlessly

Endlessly opened his career by winning three straight races, including the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) and Zuma Beach (G3). A subsequent eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf wasn’t bad given that he lost by only 3 1/2 lengths. If Endlessly can translate his talent to Tapeta for Saturday’s seventh race at Golden Gate Fields, the El Camino Real Derby at 7:45 p.m. EST, he’ll be formidable.

Kinza

Kinza was tons the best when debuting in a six-furlong, maiden special weight at Santa Anita, vying for the early lead before drawing off to win by 7 1/2 lengths. The Bob Baffert-trained filly is a logical win threat while stepping up in class for Saturday’s fifth race at Santa Anita, the Las Virgenes (G3) at 5:30 p.m. PST.

Maymun

Maymun was pretty spectacular when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month, leading all the way through intense fractions of 21.72 and 43.91 seconds to dominate by 7 1/2 lengths in the fast time of 1:15.59. Runner-up Mc Vay returned to finish fourth in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) on the road to the Kentucky Derby, so Maymun should be tough to beat stepping up in class and distance for Sunday’s sixth race at Santa Anita, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at 4:30 p.m. EST.

Nothing Like You

Nothing Like You has won three straight races for Baffert, including the Desi Arnaz and Starlet (G2). She’ll have every chance to keep her win streak alive while kicking off her 3-year-old season in the Las Virgenes, where stablemate Kinza looms among her main challengers.

Worth another try

Pretty Liam

Pretty Liam didn’t get a good trip in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting five furlongs over the Gulfstream Tapeta track Thursday. She got bounced around in traffic early and then had to wait for room around the turn. She ultimately made some progress along the rail but never had a lot of room to maneuver and settled for third place by three-quarters of a length. Since she didn’t receive a clear run by any means, I’ll give Pretty Liam another try next time.

Off the Watch list

Goodnight Olive

Two-time Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Goodnight Olive has been retired from racing after back-to-back championship seasons. Here’s hoping she enjoys equal success as a broodmare.

Hibernacle

Hibernacle romped in her debut at Keeneland last spring but struggled in her return from a lengthy layoff at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday, finishing last of seven in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer. Hibernacle may have been compromised by chasing intense fractions of 20.93 and 43.23 seconds, but I’ll want to see her bounce back with a sharper run before recommending her again.

Mawj

Runner-up in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Mile, British classic winner Mawj has retired from racing and will join the broodmare ranks at Godolphin.