Horses to Watch: 2 juveniles win their way onto the list

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future. Juvenile winners Mitty’s Griddy and New Century joined the list.

Thursday results

Churchill Downs, race 5: Mitty’s Griddy received a perfect pace setup when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight. The Brad Cox-trained juvenile broke slowly and dropped a dozen lengths behind a fast opening quarter-mile in 21.35 seconds. But his big rally to get up and win by one length wasn’t merely an illusion from the leaders tiring; according to the Equibase GPS result chart, Mitty’s Griddy clocked his final quarter-mile in a swift 23.58 seconds. Mitty’s Griddy may turn out to be something special.

Saturday results

Woodbine, race 7: Moira ran well against a strange setup in the 1 1/4-mile E. P. Taylor (G1). As eventual winner Full Count Felicia opened up a lead as large as 19 lengths through perfectly reasonable even slow fractions of 25.12, 48.19 and 1:11.81, Moira settled as many as 20 1/2 lengths off the pace. No one had a realistic chance to catch Full Count Felicia down the homestretch, but Moira gave it a game try, running her final two quarter-miles in 22.21 and 22.80 seconds per the Equibase GPS result chart to finish second by 3 1/2 lengths. She’s worth watching again.

Churchill Downs, race 9: Skelly put up a gallant fight in the six-furlong Louisville Thoroughbred Society, setting fractions of 22.10 and 44.99 seconds before faltering in the final yards to finish second by a neck. But after three straight defeats, I’ll drop Skelly from my watch list for the time being. I may add him back once racing at Oaklawn resumes, since Skelly is 8-for-10 at Oaklawn and 2-for-8 everywhere else.

Churchill Downs, race 10: Although Owen Almighty suffered his first defeat from three starts in the Iroquois (G3), he didn’t run badly in the one-mile race that started the road to the Kentucky Derby. He spent much of the journey racing between rivals, and when he found room for the drive he closed some ground against gate-to-wire winner Jonathan’s Way to finish second by 2 3/4 lengths. Owen Almighty is worth watching again.

Woodbine, race 9: Great Britain raider New Century made an eye-catching, North America debut in the Summer (G1) for juveniles racing one mile on turf. The son of Kameko rated in eighth place behind quick fractions of 22.60, 45.54 and 1:09.27, then outkicked Al Qudra, who had beaten New Century in England’s seven-furlong Pat Eddery, to score by 1 1/4 lengths.

Per the Equibase GPS chart, New Century clocked his final quarter-mile in a sharp 22.87 seconds to record a final time of 1:32.80 seconds, not too far off the time of 1:32.11 seconds posted by older horses in the Woodbine Mile (G1) one race later. New Century is slated to tackle the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf this fall and looks like a good fit for that contest.

Churchill Downs, race 11: Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t typically crank his juveniles to win on debut. When a McPeek trainee does win first-time out, they often develop into quality stakes horses–a recent example is Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Thorpedo Anna.

That’s why I’m adding Handsome Pants to my watch list. The 2-year-old son of Daredevil debuted in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight and outran expectations at 10-1 odds, settling in sixth place behind splits of 23.36 and 47.74 seconds before launching a rally to win by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:45.11 seconds. It wasn’t the fastest effort on the clock, but I’m confident Handsome Pants has upside and will improve off this winning debut.

Woodbine, race 10: My Boy Prince failed to threaten while facing older horses in the Woodbine Mile (G1), finishing sixth. He was beaten only 4 1/2 lengths while gaining a bit of ground through quick closing fractions, so it was a better performance than first appears. But after two straight defeats, including in the King’s Plate against his own age group, My Boy Prince is off my watch list.

Wednesday entries

Churchill Downs, race 8: Which version of Pure Force will show up in this six-furlong $125,000 allowance optional claimer? The one who easily won his first two starts at Churchill, including a $100,000 allowance optional claimer by five lengths? Or the one who finished last out of five in the Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga? The Amsterdam took place over a rail-biased track, so I’m inclined to forgive Pure Force’s misfire and assume he’ll bounce back while dropping in class and returning to Churchill Downs.