Horses to Watch: Does Lukas have another Secret Oath?
New to the watch list
Saratoga Secret
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas rarely saddles first-time starters to win maiden special weights. It’s happened only five times in the last decade, and four of those horses turned out to be Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and champion Take Charge Brandi, Ohio Derby winner and Kentucky Derby starter Mr. Z, the two-time stakes-placed John Q. Public and Schuylerville (G3) runner-up Summer Promise.
The fifth name on the list is Saratoga Secret, who won her debut Friday at Ellis Park. The daughter of Arrogate entered off sharp workouts at Churchill Downs and proved much the best against five rivals, tracking and pressing fractions of 22.91 and 45.83 seconds before drawing off to win the 5 1/2-furlong contest by three lengths in 1:04.63.
Lukas already has trained one daughter of Arrogate to high-level success, that being Secret Oath, winner of the 2022 Kentucky Oaks (G1). Only time will tell whether Saratoga Secret can achieve the same level of glory, but she looks ready to head to Saratoga and make noise at the graded-stakes level.
Recent Watch List winners
Two Phil’s
The 2023 Kentucky Derby runner-up started as the 3-5 favorite in the Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown and ran to expectations, rating as many as three lengths behind splits of 22.62, 47.42 and 1:11.82 before sweeping past the leaders to win by 5 3/4 lengths. His sharp final time of 1:49.60 seconds for 1 1/8 miles produced a 105 Beyer Speed Figure from the Daily Racing Form, reiterating Two Phil’s' ranking as one of the most talented 3-year-olds in the country.
Unfortunately, Two Phil’s suffered an ankle injury during the Ohio Derby and likely is out for the rest of the year. Retirement also is a possibility, so I’ll stay tuned for news on Two Phil’s and wish him the best in recovery.
Worth another try
American Rascal
Disappointed at a short price in the Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot in England, fading to finish 13th, but I try not to judge disappointing efforts at Royal Ascot too harshly. It’s a super-competitive meet, and American raiders face a stiff challenge tackling the unfamiliar course layout. I’ll give American Rascal a chance to rebound when he returns to the U.S.
Big Invasion
Big Invasion likewise faltered in his Royal Ascot foray, running 13th against a deep field in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1). I’ll draw a line through this effort.
Bishops Bay
After losing the Peter Pan (G3) to future Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo and the Ohio Derby to Two Phil’s, it seems Bishops Bay isn’t quite at up to winning against top-tier competition right now. But he finished well clear of the third-place runners in both the Peter Pan and Ohio Derby, so a slightly easier target such as the West Virginia Derby (G3) could be ripe for conquest by Bishops Bay this summer.
Fandom
Like American Rascal, Fandom found the Royal Ascot competition too tough, finishing 11th in the Coventry (G2). He had run only once before, dominating a maiden contest at Keeneland, so Fandom is worth trying again next time.
Matareya
Ran well below expectations in the Chicago (G3) at Ellis Park, tracking the early pace before fading to finish third by a dozen lengths as the 0.59-1 favorite. This marked a sharp regression from Matareya’s victory against elite competition in the Derby City Distaff (G1) last month, so I’ll wait and see how she performs next time before deciding whether she should stay on my watch list.
Modern Games
Two-time Breeders’ Cup winner failed to fire his strongest shot in the Queen Anne (G1) on opening day at Royal Ascot, finishing fourth by 3 1/2 lengths. But I get the impression Modern Games is better racing around a turn (or two turns) than down a straight course, so perhaps we’ll see him return to the U.S. this summer and pick up another Grade 1 prize over a tight-turning course.
Twilight Gleaming
Failed to challenge while facing males in the King’s Stand (G1) at Royal Ascot, finishing 16th. But that was a tough race and Twilight Gleaming was a long shot in the betting, so she’s eligible to bounce back upon returning to the U.S. and squaring off against easier competition.
Off the Watch List
Gold Magic
Gave Tapeta a try in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer Sunday at Woodbine but faded to finish third as the favorite. It wasn’t a bad effort (he was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths after dueling through decent fractions of 22.90 and 45.63 seconds), but Gold Magic has lost two straight races at this point and needs to show more spark. If he stretches out in distance next time (he has the pedigree to run at least one mile), I’ll keep an eye on the outcome and possibly return him to my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.