Horses to Watch: Irish Aces impresses + 2 in the Malibu

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

New to the Watch List

Irish Aces

Irish Aces might have been beaten in Saturday’s Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream Park, but he ran an excellent race in defeat. The son of Mshawish stumbled badly at the start, trailed through modest fractions of 22.69, 47.46 and 1:12.20 and had to rally extremely wide down the homestretch. But despite these obstacles, he closed fast (running his final five-sixteenths of a mile in about 27.75 seconds) to finish second by a neck.

Irish Aces previously dominated a Horseshoe Indianapolis maiden special weight and a Keeneland allowance racing 1 1/16 miles on turf, so it appears this Brendan Walsh trainee is a talented grass horse in the making. I’m intrigued to see what he can accomplish as a 4-year-old in 2024.

Upcoming entries

Giant Mischief

Giant Mischief long has shown flashes of talent sprinting. As a 2-year-old in the fall of 2022, he won a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland, battling up the inside to beat future Woody Stephens (G1) winner Arabian Lion by three-quarters of a length.

In September, Giant Mischief returned from a seven-month layoff to dominate a $125,000 allowance optional claimer for 3-year-olds sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs, pouncing from just off the pace to win by 2 3/4 lengths. He subsequently finished second by 1 1/2 lengths when facing older rivals in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill.

Returning to the 3-year-old ranks for Tuesday’s eighth race at Santa Anita, the Malibu (G1, post time 5:30 p.m. EST) should help Giant Mischief produce a competitive showing. The field is deep, but the seven-furlong distance is ideal, and I’m optimistic Giant Mischief still has upside for improvement.

Speed Boat Beach

Giant Mischief’s encouraging credentials aside, the horse to beat in the Malibu is surely Speed Boat Beach. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Malibu five times, Speed Boat Beach exits a respectable fourth-place finish against elite older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Speed Boat Beach carved out a strong pace in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and may enjoy stretching out from six furlongs to seven furlongs for the Malibu. The pace figures to be a bit slower, and it’s worth noting Speed Boat Beach carried his speed over one mile in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) as a juvenile.

Before the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Speed Boat Beach finished second while facing older rivals in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), beaten only a head by multiple Grade 1 winner Dr. Schivel. In other words, Speed Boat Beach’s fine Breeders’ Cup effort wasn’t a fluke. He’s the fastest Malibu entrant from a Brisnet Speed Rating perspective and a formidable win threat while facing fellow 3-year-olds.

Worth another try

Nash

After posting a runaway gate-to-wire maiden victory racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, Nash changed tactics when stepping up in class for the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. He failed to show the same early speed and wound up dropping back to fifth place early on, 5 3/4 lengths off the pace. Nash made a mid-race move to reach contention at the top of the stretch, but down the lane he flattened out to finish third by three lengths. Was the change in running style responsible? It’s hard to say, but since Nash clearly regressed off his flashy maiden score, I’ll give him a chance to bounce back next time.

Off the Watch List

Dynamic One

The 2022 Suburban (G2) winner returned from a 15 1/2-month layoff in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer on Friday at Gulfstream Park. Unfortunately, he failed to factor, racing off the pace throughout to finish fifth by 7 1/2 lengths in the one-mile contest. Since Dynamic One also ran below par in his final start before the long layoff, finishing sixth in the 2022 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), I’ll drop him from my watch list.

Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.