Horses to Watch: Happy Saver, Mystic Guide among 4 to follow
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Upcoming Entries
Defunded ran too well to lose in the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes at Santa Anita last month. After dueling for the lead through quick fractions, the son of Dialed In opened up a clear lead around the far turn, only to be run down in the final furlong by proven graded stakes winner The Chosen Vron.
Even still, Defunded was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths while pulling 11 lengths clear of the rest. If Defunded rations his speed a bit better in Sunday’s fourth race at Los Alamitos, the $150,000 Los Alamitos Derby (G3, post time 5:28 p.m. EDT), he can produce a winning effort. Only four other runners have been entered and Defunded looks strong from a Brisnet Speed Rating standpoint. I will be a bit surprised if he fails to get the job done under hot jockey Abel Cedillo.
The rematch is on. Last October, the undefeated Happy Saver squared off against the up-and-coming Mystic Guide in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park, with Happy Saver emerging victorious by 3/4 of a length. Roughly nine months later, the two colts will meet again in Saturday’s 10th race at Belmont Park, the $400,000 Suburban (G2, post time 5:44 p.m. EDT).
Happy Saver received a tricky trip in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. After saving ground behind rivals, he lacked racing room on the far turn and had to wait for an opportunity to advance. When a narrow opening appeared along the rail, Happy Saver forged through with determination, squeezing through tight quarters to battle on and defeat Mystic Guide by 3/4 of a length.
Happy Saver has only run once since then, kicking off his 2021 campaign with a comfortable victory in a one-mile allowance race at Belmont. This off-the-bench sharpener should have Happy Saver poised for a peak effort in his second start of the season, so do not be surprised if the son of Super Saver maintains his advantage over Mystic Guide in the Suburban.
Happy Saver may have defeated Mystic Guide in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but supporters of Mystic Guide have plenty of reasons to expect a different outcome in the Suburban. For starters, Mystic Guide endured a much wider trip than Happy Saver in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. According to Trakus, Mystic Guide ran approximately 47 feet (nearly six lengths) farther than his conqueror, certainly enough to affect the outcome.
Furthermore, Mystic Guide has improved in the interim. The son of Ghostzapper is 2-for-2 this season, demolishing Oaklawn Park’s Razorback Handicap (G3) by six lengths before shipping to Dubai and racing to a confident 3 3/4-length victory in the 1 1/4-mile Dubai World Cup (G1). Throw in the fact Mystic Guide has drawn inside of Happy Saver – potentially opening the door for a ground-saving trip – and it’s easy to understand why Mystic Guide is a slight favorite on the morning line.
No matter who wins, the Suburban showdown figures to be the best race of the week.
What kind of effort should we expect from Wolfie’s Dynaghost in Saturday’s eighth race at Belmont Park, an allowance optional claimer (post time 4:40 p.m. EDT) held over one mile on the inner turf course? That’s a tough question, but I am inclined to think Wolfie’s Dynaghost will produce a competitive effort.
Wolfie’s Dynaghost certainly showed promise in his debut sprinting seven furlongs over the Aqueduct main track last fall. After tracking the early pace, he forged clear to win by 1 1/2 lengths over a deep field containing future Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Weyburn, Lexington Stakes (G3) runner-up Unbridled Honor, Federico Tesio Stakes winner The Reds, and Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up Dynamic One.
But Wolfie’s Dynaghost completely misfired in his second start. Returning from a long layoff in the May 8 Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park, Wolfie’s Dynaghost carved out slow fractions of 24.53, 48.62, and 1:13.20, but gave way suddenly in the final three furlongs to finish last by 20 1/4 lengths.
Given how quickly Wolfie’s Dynaghost stopped, I am left to wonder if something went awry. If he bled, perhaps the fact he is adding Lasix for Saturday’s race will help him rebound. In any case, the switch to turf is a positive. Wolfie’s Dynaghost is bred top and bottom to relish the lawn, just like his Grade 1-winning half-brother Sadler’s Joy. I think Wolfie’s Dynaghost can factor as a 6-1 mid-range long shot in his second start off the layoff.