Horses to Watch: Derby hopefuls among 9 who impressed
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
It’s safe to say Greatest Honour drew a lot of attention with his runaway victory in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. In his debut on the road to the Kentucky Derby, the son of Tapit drew off strongly down the stretch to beat a quality field by 5 3/4 lengths, stopping the timer for 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.19.
I would argue the most impressive aspect of Greatest Honour’s performance was his rally around the final bend. Though the Shug McGaughey-trained sophomore prefers to rate off the pace early on, he’s also capable of accelerating on turns, which prevents him from being a one-dimensional deep closer reliant on a fast pace to have any chance at victory.
Indeed, Greatest Honour is quite tactical. In the Holy Bull, his rally around the far turn was so explosive that he had secured the lead by the top of the stretch, which isn’t something you see from typical deep closers. Greatest Honour’s ability to get involved sooner rather than later should serve him well as the waters get deeper through the winter and spring.
White Frost has been unstoppable since switching from dirt to turf for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. After finishing fast off a slow pace to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct, the daughter of Candy Ride proved much the best in the 1-mile Sweetest Chant (G3) at Gulfstream Park.
After rating in sixth place for most of the journey, White Frost rocketed the final two furlongs in :11.17 and :11.31 to defeat proven stakes winner Con Lima by a length in 1:34.45. With her improving form and spectacular acceleration, White Frost is shaping up to be a formidable sophomore turf star this season.
Recent winners
Express Train was a work in progress for a long time, but the late-maturing colt finally put everything together with an eye-catching victory in the San Pasqual (G2) at Santa Anita. A slightly slow break left Express Train racing behind rivals early on, but the son of Union Rags was always moving well and seemed poised to strike at any moment.
The right moment came at the top of the stretch. Steering wide for the drive, Express Train launched a strong finish that carried him to victory by 3 1/4 lengths. His final time of 1:52.13 for 1 1/8 miles was excellent over a slow and tiring track.
Under the patient care of trainer John Shirreffs, Express Train has developed into a formidable graded stakes star. Having proven he can handle 1 1/8 miles against quality competition, the next stop for Express Train is the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Considering how rapidly he’s progressing, victory in the historic “Big ‘Cap” should be well within reach for Express Train.
Arguably the top 3-year-old filly sprinter of 2020 kicked off her 4-year-old season with sharp victory in the American Beauty Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Dashing six furlongs over a sloppy track, Frank’s Rockette tracked fast fractions of :21.47 and :44.68 set by the multiple Grade 1-placed Amy’s Challenge, then wore down her front-running rival to score by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:10.03.
Any way you slice it, this was a sharp seasonal debut for Frank’s Rockette. The Bill Mott-trained filly appears poised for a highly productive 2021 campaign.
I was very impressed with the guts and determination Medina Spirit displayed in winning the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita. Breaking from the rail, the Bob Baffert trainee took the lead but was hounded for the better part of six furlongs by the speedy Wipe the Slate, who pushed Medina Spirit through testing fractions of :22.89, :46.61, and 1:12.36 over a slow and tiring track.
Wipe the Slate eventually faded to finish last by 20 lengths, but Medina Spirit kept going. Challenged at the top of the stretch by Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit dug deep and refused to yield, fighting on with resilience to win by a neck in 1:46.26.
Factoring in the fast pace, I believe Medina Spirit deserves a ton of credit for holding off a pair of late runners down the length of the homestretch. He was likely superior by a wider margin than his narrow victory implies, so I’m excited to see how Medina Spirit progresses this winter. As a son of Protonico out of a Brilliant Speed mare, classic distances should be well within Medina Spirit’s capabilities.
A slow start and a wide run into the first turn could have compromised War Stopper in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race on Sunday at Gulfstream, but the chestnut colt shrugged off these setbacks with aplomb. A mid-race move carried the 4-5 favorite right into contention down the backstretch, and around the final bend he turned back multiple challenges to maintain command. Down the stretch, War Stopper was resolute, forging on to win by a length in 1:43.33.
War Stopper is now 3-for-4 wearing blinkers and 2-for-2 since transferring to the care of trainer Todd Pletcher. A son of Declaration of War out of a Curlin mare, War Stopper is bred to improve with distance and maturity, so I’m excited to see what he can accomplish when stretching out over 1 1/8 miles or farther this year. He just needs to work on breaking more alertly.
Worth another try
Ran a gutsy race in the Robert B. Lewis, overcoming a stumble at the start and some bumping down the stretch to finish third by a neck against Medina Spirit. This was a solid effort for Hot Rod Charlie’s first start since the Breeders’ Cup, and the Doug O’Neill-trained son of Oxbow should only benefit from getting a run under his belt.
He didn’t receive the cleanest trip when favored at even money to win the San Pasqual. After trailing a compact field during the early going, Idol attempted to rally between rivals but got stopped in traffic and lost momentum around the far turn. The son of Curlin finally found his best stride late in the race, charging hard to miss the runner-up spot by just a neck.
Idol is still lightly raced with just five starts under his belt, and I think he’ll win his fair share of races before the year is out.
In a sense, Prime Factor’s third-place effort in the Holy Bull could be considered disappointing. After tracking a quick pace from third place, Prime Factor faltered at the top of the stretch, weakening down the lane to finish third by 9 1/2 lengths.
But it’s important to remember that Prime Factor was stepping up sharply in class and distance while making only the second start of his career. It’s possible he’ll have to cut back in distance to regain the flashy form of his debut victory, but regardless, I think Prime Factor is better than he showed on Saturday and will benefit from the experience.
Off the Watch List
Kentucky Pharoah
The Dania Beach Stakes winner had every opportunity to add the Kitten’s Joy (G3) to his resume after tracking a steady pace. But the son of American Pharoah weakened down the stretch to finish fifth by 2 1/2 lengths, a disappointing effort compared to the victory I expected. Considering Dania Beach runner-up Fighting Force likewise faded to finish fourth as the favorite in Sunday’s Texas Turf Mile, I wonder if I overestimated the strength of the Dania Beach field.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.