Horses to Watch: Focus on past, future success at Fair Grounds

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Entries

Saturday, Fair Grounds, race 7

A quality field has turned out for the 1 1/16-mile, $100,000 Gun Runner, a road to the Kentucky Derby 2025 qualifier worth 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers. The five-horse field includes a couple of experienced, Derby-prep alumni, but I’m confident up-and-coming maiden winner Admiral Dennis will deliver a victory.

Admiral Dennis enjoyed no racing luck at all when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He was stuck behind horses down the homestretch and never had a clear path to run. Despite this obstacle he battled on to finish third, beaten by only two lengths.

Bettors noticed the trouble Admiral Dennis endured and made him an odds-on favorite to win his second start in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill. This time the colt enjoyed an unencumbered journey tracking the pace outside of horses. Down the lane he finished strongly, running his final quarter-mile in 24.57 seconds to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

Admiral Dennis has drawn the far outside post in the Gun Runner and figures to enjoy another comfortable tracking trip. From there he should be tough to beat for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox.

Saturday, Fair Grounds, race 9

Last year’s Gun Runner winner Track Phantom is returning to Fair Grounds for the 1 1/6-mile $100,000 Tenacious. He’s the 3-1 second choice on the morning line and has a good chance to upset 9-5 favorite Saudi Crown, who exits a last-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Track Phantom’s 1 1/4-length triumph in the Gun Runner kicked off a productive streak of performances at Fair Grounds. In his second start over the surface he wired the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 Lecomte by 2 3/4 lengths over future stakes winner Nash. In his third start he carved out the pace in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) before tiring to finish second by a half-length against future Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone. Among his beaten rivals were next-out Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom and future Wood Memorial (G2) conqueror Resilience.

Track Phantom subsequently faded to finish fourth in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) and then 11th in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. The distances may have been too long. After taking six months off, he bounced back when cutting back to seven furlongs for a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, finishing second by one length after leading in mid-stretch. 

Track Phantom is 3-for-3 racing 1 1/16 miles and should appreciate returning to this distance at Fair Grounds. In his second start off the layoff, Track Phantom looks formidable under red-hot jockey José Ortiz, who has gone 28-for-82 for 34% to start the meet at Fair Grounds.