Horses to Watch: 2 turf runners at Keeneland, Woodbine
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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I will be the first to admit Elle Z is facing a tricky task in attempting to win Friday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the Franklin County (G3,post time 5:16 p.m. EDT). But I also believe the 4-year-old filly can outrun her 8-1 morning line odds.
A versatile sort capable of running well on both dirt and turf, Elle Z is a pure pacesetter who hasn’t been headed at the first two calls of her last nine starts. Along the way, she has won multiple stakes over the 5 1/2-furlong distance of the Franklin County.
Elle Z does not seem to handle much give in the ground, so firm turf may be essential to her chances at Keeneland. She relished such conditions in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Keeneland last fall, winning by 1 1/4 lengths in the solid time of 1:02.32 seconds. If the weather stays clear on Friday (which isn’t a given), I am optimistic Elle Z can produce a similar effort in the Franklin County.
Whether such a performance will be enough to defeat multiple Group 1 winner Campanelle is another question entirely, but Elle Z is training forwardly for her first run since finishing second in a fast-paced renewal of the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Sprint on Aug. 8. Don’t be surprised if Elle Z managed to crack the top three at Keeneland.
Phenomenal sire Scat Daddy passed away six years ago, but it is possible his tally of Grade 1 winners is not yet complete. There is a good chance Scat Daddy will pick up another top-level winner when Great Island starts as the possible favorite in Sunday’s eighth race at Woodbine, the E. P. Taylor (G1, post time 4:37 p.m.).
Under the care of four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, Great Island has been a picture of consistency since her debut in October 2019. Across eight starts (including five stakes), the chestnut mare has not finished out of the trifecta while improving steadily along the way.
Great Island was especially strong during the summer. After unleashing a huge stretch rally to win the Matchmaker (G3) racing 1 1/8 miles at Monmouth Park, Great Island tackled 1 3/8 miles in Saratoga’s Flower Bowl (G1), where she finished second behind standout long-distance grass mare War Like Goddess.
Great Island should find the competition a bit easier in the E. P. Taylor, and the 1 1/4-mile distance should be just about perfect. At the very least, Great Island should produce a respectable effort in her Woodbine debut. And with luck, she will secure her first Grade 1 win and further enhance Scat Daddy’s stud resume.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?