Horses to Watch: Thrilling new Derby prospect joins the list

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Results

Friday

Del Mar, race 8: Runaway maiden winner Accuracy had no difficulty stepping up in class for a $40,000 allowance optional claimer. Facing four rivals, the 3-year-old daughter of Arrogate carved out fractions of 22.94, 46.57 and 1:10.93 before pulling away to win the one-mile contest by 7 1/4 lengths in 1:35.85. A stakes is surely next on the agenda for this flashy watch list winner.

Saturday

Gulfstream Park, race 6: Stunner ran below form as the 3-10 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire My Dear Girl. After setting fractions of 23.32, 47.49 and 1:13.21, she opened up a four-length lead but grew leg-weary late. According to the Equibase GPS result chart, Stunner ran her final quarter-mile in 29.07 seconds to finish second by a neck against the stretch-running My Denysse.

This marked a major regression on the Daily Racing Form Beyer Speed Figure scale from Stunner’s previous victory in the Tempted at Aqueduct, so I’m willing to forgive this defeat and assume something went wrong. Stunner did act up a bit before the start, popping open her starting gate doors, and maybe this affected her performance. She’s worth watching again.

Churchill Downs, race 5: Patch Adams is new to my watch list (and the watch list of pretty much any Kentucky Derby fan) after obliterating a seven-furlong maiden special weight in spectacular fashion.

Coming off a pacesetting third-place finish in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland, Patch Adams improved dramatically in his second start. The Brad Cox-trained juvenile pressed fractions of 22.51 and 45.14 seconds while racing outside rivals, took over through a stiff six furlongs in 1:08.60 and powered clear late to win wrapped up by 10 1/2 lengths.

Patch Adams reached the finish line in 1:20.77, just 0.34 seconds off the track record set in 2012 by two-time Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Groupie Doll. The future looks bright for this son of perennial leading North American sire Into Mischief.

Churchill Downs, race 7: Disco Time picked up his first win as a member of my watch list when taking a one-mile, $100,000 allowance optional claimer, bringing his career tally to 2-for-2. The Brad Cox-trained juvenile dueled through fractions of 23.03, 45.51 and 1:09.83 over a quick-playing track before pulling away to win by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:34.98. The road to the Kentucky Derby beckons.

Gulfstream Park, race 10: Rated by Merit boosted his record to four wins from as many starts when delivering a watch list win in the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality. Victory was never really in doubt for the Florida-bred juvenile; after setting controlled fractions of 24.13, 48.92 and 1:14.14, Rated by Merit gradually extended his advantage to win by six lengths in 1:45.71, earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. Could a Road to the Kentucky Derby foray be next on his agenda?

Churchill Downs, race 9: Good Cheer brought her career record to 4-for-4 and picked up her second win as a watch list member when delivering a comfortable victory in the 1 1/16-mile Golden Rod (G2). Favored at odds-on, the stoutly bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro rated in fifth position before launching a rally around the far turn to take command and score by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:43.26.

Meanwhile, the previously unbeaten Eclatant is worth watching again. Making her route debut, Eclatant pressed and dueled through fractions of 24.31, 48.66 and 1:12.55 before tiring down the lane to finish third by 8 1/2 lengths. Perhaps cutting back in distance will help her rebound.

Sunday

Churchill Downs, race 4: Booth is back in a big way. The speedy but inconsistent sprinter ended an eight-month layoff with victory in a 6 1/2-furlong, $125,000 allowance optional claimer. Pressing and setting splits of 22.45 and 45.28 seconds did nothing to tire the 3-year-old son of Mitole, as Booth finished up nicely (final five-sixteenths of a mile in 30.11 seconds) to win by 1 1/2 lengths in the snappy time of 1:15.39. I’m looking forward to seeing where this watch list winner heads next.