Horses to Watch: Follow 7 winners; try 5 more again
New to the watch list
Hurricane Dream
After placing five times at the group stakes level in France, Hurricane Dream kicked off his U.S. campaign with a 10th-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park. It wasn’t a great effort at first glance, but Hurricane Dream was beaten only four lengths in his first start off a four-month layoff.
Dropping in class for a 1 1/16-mile turf allowance at Keeneland last Friday triggered a dramatic turnaround from Hurricane Dream. After rating as many as 7 1/2 lengths behind early splits of 22.52 and 46.14 seconds, Hurricane Dream unleashed an explosive rally to dominate an accomplished field by 4 1/2 lengths. He ran his final sixteenth of a mile in a snappy 5.82 seconds to complete the race in a sharp 1:40.60, suggesting Hurricane Dream has the talent to win a graded stakes this season. Keep a close eye on this 6-year-old Graham Motion trainee.
Recent watch list winners
Corona Bolt
This speedy 3-year-old brought his record sprinting to 4-for-4 with a gate-to-wire victory in the seven-furlong Lafayette at Keeneland. Corona Bolt was challenged in the homestretch by race favorite Hejazi, but dug deep in the final furlong and edged clear to win by one length in 1:23.21. The fact Corona Bolt kept going after setting quick fractions of 22.28 and 44.80 seconds is encouraging.
Faiza
Five starts, five victories. Faiza just keeps getting better. She picked up her fourth graded win in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita, settling 7 1/2 lengths behind a runaway winner before pouncing around the far turn and down the homestretch to win the 1 1/16-mile contest by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:43.27. That was her most impressive performance to date, so Faiza still has upside and looks like an exciting filly for the summer.
Goodnight Olive
Last year’s champion female sprinter kicked off 2023 on a winning note in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. After breaking on top and briefly vying for the early lead along the inside, Goodnight Olive backed off, shifted outside, pounced to a clear lead and held off red-hot Inside Information (G2) winner Maryquitecontrary to win by one length in 1:23.12 for seven furlongs. Goodnight Olive appears poised for another productive season.
Practical Move
Employed rail-skimming tactics for the third straight time in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita, slipping through along the inside and holding off a late charge from Japan's Mandarin Hero to win by a nose in the quick time of 1:48.69. Practical Move’s willingness to advance inside of rivals is impressive, and three straight graded wins have stamped him among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
Squire Creek
Fair Grounds debut winner shipped to Keeneland for his second start and promptly wired a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs on Saturday. Setting fractions of 22.25 and 45.89 seconds did nothing to tire the son of Uncle Mo, who stayed on nicely down the homestretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:10.89. Squire Creek has the pedigree to stretch out in distance, so the future looks bright for this Brad Cox trainee.
Tapit Trice
Under a perfect ride from Luis Saez, Tapit Trice broke from the rail in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, shifted to the outside around the far turn, launched a mid-race move to reach contention, and then chased down the pace-tracking Verifying to win by a neck in 1:50.00. Tapit Trice finished up nicely (running the final furlong in about 12.38 seconds) and heads to the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites.
Worth another try
Cairo Consort
Nearly prevailed in the Appalachian (G2) racing 1 1/16 miles over the Keeneland turf course, but after racing in tight quarters between rivals down the homestretch, Cairo Consort failed by just a neck to outkick deep-closing Pailio through strong closing fractions. Even with the trouble, Cairo Consort ran her final quarter-mile in about 23 seconds.
Hit Show
Withers (G3) winner Hit Show nearly picked up a second graded victory in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, but came home second by a nose in a three-way photo finish. Hit Show has made strong progress since his October debut and has the pedigree to keep progressing for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, so I’ll keep him on my watch list.
Skinner
An oversight excluded Skinner from last week’s Horses to Watch weekend preview story, but he’s been a member of my watch list since breaking his maiden in February, and I’m keeping him around after his game third in the Santa Anita Derby. Whereas Practical Move received a perfect ground-saving trip, Skinner raced wide on both turns before closing ground gamely to finish half a length behind Practical Move. You can make a case that Skinner ran better than the winner, so he could be a sneaky live long shot in the Kentucky Derby.
Society
Carved out fractions of 22.53 and 45.93 seconds in the Madison before weakening down the homestretch to finish third behind Goodnight Olive. This was a solid comeback run from a filly who secured her signature victory racing 1 1/16 miles in the Cotillion (G1) last year.
Verifying
Put up a game fight against Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass, tracking early fractions of 23.32, 48.04 and 1:12.57 before battling down the homestretch to finish second by a neck while pulling 5 3/4 lengths clear of Champagne (G1) winner Blazing Sevens. This was a big step forward off Verifying’s troubled fourth in the Rebel (G2), so he heads to the Kentucky Derby with a shot at running well.
Off the watch list
Julia Shining
National Treasure
Run Classic
Yuugiri
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.