Horses to Watch: Follow 3 stars in Cigar Mile and more

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Entries

Saturday

Aqueduct, race 7: Keewaydin is the 6-5 morning line favorite to win the $250,000 Remsen (G2), a 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers. His credentials make it easy to understand why.

Keewaydin has knocked heads with fierce competition. In his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, he finished third by a neck against next-out Champagne (G1) runner-up Tip Top Thomas while coming home three lengths ahead of future Street Sense (G3) winner Sovereignty.

Keewaydin followed up with a 1 3/4-length triumph in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct, in which he clocked his final three furlongs in a quick 36.39 seconds. That effort earned a strong 91 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, the highest number in the Remsen field.

If Keewaydin can maintain that level of form while stretching out over 1 1/8 miles, he can deliver a Remsen victory for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Dylan Davis and Chad Brown, who have teamed up to win at a 42 percent rate over the last two months per Brisnet statistics.

Aqueduct, race 8: Kentucky Oaks (G1) qualification points are up for grabs on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis in the $250,000 Demoiselle (G2), and the 4-5 morning line favorite to win the 1 1/8-mile contest is the undefeated Muhimma.

Hailing from the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox, Muhimma has yet to be challenged in two starts. In her debut dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, she showed pace-pressing speed on her way to victory by 7 1/2 lengths over next-out maiden winner My Lil Punky. Then she took on a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer and again showed tactical speed to beat Pocahontas (G3) runner-up Liam in the Dust by 5 1/2 lengths.

Muhimma was simply cruising down the homestretch of her allowance win, giving the impression she had more to offer. I’m confident this talented gray filly can keep her unbeaten record intact even while stepping up in class and distance for the Demoiselle.

Aqueduct, race 9: The final graded stakes on the Saturday card at Aqueduct is the $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (G2), which has drawn a stellar 11-horse field. Among the entrants are Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile runner-up Post Time, Saudi Cup (G1) winner Senor Buscador, Forego (G1) winner and Breeders’ Cup Sprint third-place finisher Mullikin, and Woody Stephens (G1) conqueror Book’em Danno.

But don’t overlook Locked. As a 2-year-old last year, the son of Gun Runner showed promising form around two turns, winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and finishing third against a strong field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Despite his accomplishments running long, there’s a chance Locked is superior around one turn. On Oct. 19, he ended a nearly one-year layoff with a terrific 7 1/2-length win in a seven-furlong $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct, in which he showed pace-tracking speed (a departure from his stretch-running tactics of the past) to prevail in the strong time of 1:21.02.

With this comeback effort under his belt, Locked is eligible to move forward in the Cigar Mile, which is contested over a one-turn mile. If he does, watch out. I’ve long believed Locked has top-tier talent, and I anticipate he’ll show it on Saturday.