Horses to Watch: Focus on a potential champion grass mare
New to the watch list
I’m turning back the clock to last week and adding In Italian, a gate-to-wire winner of Keeneland’s Jenny Wiley (G1) to kick off 2023. The 5-year-old mare isn’t an up-and-comer like I typically add to my watch list; last year she won the Diana (G1) and First Lady (G1) and finished a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).
But even at this late juncture, I believe In Italian still has upside. She trounced a quality field by three lengths in the Jenny Wiley and looms as an obvious candidate to win the June 9 Just a Game (G1) racing one mile on grass at Belmont Park. If In Italian can start the season with victories in the Jenny Wiley and Just a Game, and if she can hold her form to score repeat wins in the Diana and First Lady, we might be looking at the champion turf female of 2023.
Worth another try
Put up a game try in the 1 1/8-mile Bath House Row at Oaklawn, setting fractions of 22.87 seconds, 46.95, 1:12.06 and 1:38.33 before weakening late to finish third by half a length. Victory Formation finished 7 1/2 lengths clear of the rest and was carrying co-top weight of 124 pounds (conceding six pounds to the top two finishers), so we’ll view his defeat in a positive light. It’s possible cutting back to one mile or 1 1/16 miles will help Victory Formation down the road.
Off the watch list
Charge It
Charge It appeared positioned to challenge in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) at Oaklawn, but came up empty down the homestretch, lugging in and bumping with pacesetter Stilleto Boy before fading to finish fifth. Charge It has now lost two straight graded stakes while favored, so I’ll drop him from my watch list until he shows a bit more spark.
Disc Jockey
Disc Jockey didn’t get the cleanest trip in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn on Saturday, but after unleashing a mid-race move to reach contention, he flattened out and settled for fourth place. I was expecting a sharper showing from Disc Jockey, who has lost two of his three starts since joining my watch list. He may have less upside than I’d hoped, so I’ll drop him for the time being.
Witsel
Way back in July 2021, Witsel ran a giant race in a seven-furlong allowance at Saratoga, finishing second by a nose against the talented Beau Liam. That marked Witsel’s second career start after a debut victory at Tampa Bay Downs in December 2020.
Unfortunately, Witsel hasn’t raced since that Saratoga allowance. He posted four workouts at Payson Park early in 2022 and three more at Fair Hill during the fall of 2022, but he hasn’t turned in a timed exercise since Nov. 5. He could still launch a comeback this season, but by the time he returns he’ll have been away for a couple of years. I’ll be intrigued if Witsel makes it back to the races, but for now I’m tidying up my watch list and dropping him.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.