Horses to Watch: Undefeated G3 winner leads 5 to notice
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Recent Watch List winner
Delivered another rallying victory as expected in the Dwyer (G3) at Belmont Park, bringing his record to a perfect 3-for-3. The son of Curlin was content to settle back in fourth place early on, but gradually edged closer through splits of 23.47, 46.67 and 1:11.04 before wearing down pacesetter Ridin With Biden to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths.
According to Trakus, First Captain dashed his final quarter mile in a solid 24.70. Considering First Captain is bred top and bottom to relish classic distances, I can’t wait to see how he performs when stretching out around two turns in the future. The 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1) looms as a summer target for the $1.5 million yearling acquisition, with the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy (G2) a potential stepping stone toward that goal.
Worth another try
Edgeway
Failed to fire in the Great Lady M (G2) at Los Alamitos, finishing a distant fourth behind champion and heavy favorite Gamina. But we’ll draw a line through this effort, since Edgeway’s previous form was much stronger. Perhaps the daughter of Competitive Edge simply had a bad day.
Fulsome
As with Edgeway, we’ll forgive Fulsome’s disappointing third-place showing in the Indiana Derby (G3) at Indiana Grand. Favored at 2-5 off an impressive victory in the Matt Winn (G3), Fulsome ran well below expectations, rallying only belatedly from last place to finish third by 5 1/2 lengths. A modest early pace probably didn’t help his chances, but overall, I think Fulsome just brought his B-game and has room to rebound next time.
Upcoming entries
Luck Money
Where exactly will Luck Money compete this week? Your guess is as good as mine. The four-year-old daughter of Lookin At Lucky holds entries in a pair of long-distance turf stakes: Saturday’s fifth race at Delaware Park, the 1 3/8-mile Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3, post time 3:15 p.m. ET), and Sunday’s eighth race at Belmont Park, the River Memories (post time 4:19 p.m).
Both races carry the same $150,000 purse, and while the Robert G. Dick Memorial is more prestigious from a grading standpoint, the River Memories might be the better fit for Luck Money. She’s already proven herself racing 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park, beating a solid field of older rivals in the Zagora S. last fall. And if Luck Money heads to Belmont, she can avoid a rematch at Delaware with Blame Debbie, who defeated Luck Money in the 1 1/2-mile Searching at Pimlico last month.
Then again, a snail-like pace gave front-running Blame Debbie an insurmountable tactical advantage over stretch-running Luck Money in the Searching, so a fair pace setup in the Robert G. Dick Memorial might be all Luck Money needs to turn the tables. No matter where she runs this week, I do believe Luck Money will factor at a fair price.
Plum Ali
Plum Ali hasn’t caught a break so far this season. Last year’s Miss Grillo (G2) winner was compromised by slow early/fast late race shapes when finishing third in the Edgewood (G2) and second in the Wonder Again (G3), making Plum Ali’s powerful finishes less obvious to the naked eye.
And when we say “powerful,” we mean it. Plum Ali dashed the final quarter mile of the Edgewood in approximately 22.10, while in the Wonder Again, she came home the final three furlongs in just over 34.00 If Plum Ali finally gets a fair pace to work with in Saturday’s seventh race at Belmont Park, the Belmont Oaks (G1, post time 4:06 p.m.), I believe she can conquer the formidable contingent of European raiders in the entries and keep the Belmont Oaks trophy stateside.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?