Horses to Watch: Breeders' Cup invader and Baffert 2-year-olds
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
The France-bred 5-year-old mare Highfield Princess has been on quite a roll in Europe this year. Since Aug. 7, she’s rattled off consecutive victories in the 6 1/2-furlong Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1), five-furlong Nunthorpe (G1), and five-furlong Flying Five Stakes (G1).
The latter victory came on Sunday at the Curragh, and Highfield Princess left no doubt about her superiority, trouncing 18 rivals by 3 1/4 lengths. She’s bound for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and looks like a legitimate threat to secure top honors at Keeneland.
The exciting 2-year-old Speed Boat Beach showed plenty of speed in his Saturday debut at Del Mar for trainer Bob Baffert. Facing a deep field in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, Speed Boat Beach blazed to the front through intense fractions of 21.34 and 44.17 seconds and then forgot to stop down the homestretch, running the fifth furlong in 11.79 seconds and the final sixteenth in 5.90 seconds to score by 1 1/4 lengths over his expensive stablemate Hejazi.
Speed Boat Beach reached the finish line in 1:01.86 seconds, breaking the track record. The son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern is bred to run long and received a massive 104 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, the highest figure assigned to a juvenile so far this year (pending the figure for Cave Rock, see below). The future looks bright for Speed Boat Beach.
Recent Watch List winners
Is Cave Rock a beast? He certainly ran like one in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar, in the process stamping his status as the early favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Fresh off a powerful debut victory at Del Mar, Cave Rock dueled stablemate and Best Pal (G2) winner Havnameltdown into submission through terrific early fractions of 21.56 and 43.65 seconds. Havnameltdown ran a winning race in his own right, staying on to finish second by 4 1/4 lengths over stretch-running Skinner, but Cave Rock was in another league down the homestretch and sprinted the final furlong in 12.44 seconds to win by 5 1/4 lengths.
Cave Rock, also trained by Baffert, stopped the timer for seven furlongs in 1:20.99 seconds, breaking the stakes record of 1:21.29 seconds set by Declan’s Moon in 2004. As a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate, Cave Rock is bred to improve with distance and maturity, so it’s exciting to think how special this undefeated juvenile might be.
Worth another try
A bump at the start of the Franklin-Simpson (G2) at Kentucky Downs might have compromised the chances of Big Invasion, who was making his first start over the unique European-style turf course. But Big Invasion passed a bevy of rivals in the final furlong to finish third behind runaway gate-to-wire winner One Timer, so we won’t judge his defeat too harshly. A clean start over a typical turf course might be all Big Invasion needs to rebound.
Didn’t receive the cleanest trip in the John C. Mabee (G2) at Del Mar. After racing a joint third for nearly six furlongs, Going Global had to steady behind a rival and wait in traffic as eventual winner Avenue de France swept past on the outside. On the bright side, Going Global re-rallied to finish second by half a length in a game defeat. With an unencumbered journey, she might have come out on top.
Couldn’t quite keep pace with stablemates Cave Rock and Havnameltdown in the Del Mar Futurity, but fought on gamely from a pace-tracking position to finish fourth. A drop in class and an easier pace should be sufficient to send this Baffert trainee back to the winner’s circle.
Upcoming entries
Bubble Rock hasn’t competed on turf since finishing a severely troubled 12th in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. But Bubble Rock was beaten only 4 1/2 lengths that day and previously won the Matron (G3) on grass, so returning to the lawn for Tuesday’s seventh race at Kentucky Downs, the Music City (post time 4:48 p.m. EDT), might trigger a winning run. Bubble Rock was last seen finishing third in the April 2 Fantasy (G3) on dirt at Oaklawn Park, one start after romping by 2 1/2 lengths in Turfway Park’s Cincinnati Trophy on Tapeta. Traveling 6 1/2 furlongs over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs should fit Bubble Rock just fine from a distance standpoint, so don’t be surprised if she outruns her 5-1 morning line odds.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.