Horses to Watch: Distance, maturity favor Mystic Guide in Dubai
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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Two starts, two impressive victories. Annex has been on a roll for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, showcasing eye-catching acceleration to win a one-mile maiden race and the 1 1/16-mile Palm Beach Stakes over the Gulfstream Park turf course.
A son of Constitution nominated to the Triple Crown, Annex will stick to his favorite course for Saturday’s 11th race at Gulfstream Park, the $100,000 Cutler Bay Stakes (post time 4:43 p.m. EDT). I am expecting another big performance, considering how well Annex performed in the Palm Beach.
A runaway leader spread out the field over 26 lengths, and Annex could have easily mistimed his rally to advance either too soon or too late. Instead, he sprinted the final five-sixteenths in 29.22 to win by a head, cementing his status as an exciting young turf star.
Just like Annex, Greatest Honour has been on fire at Gulfstream Park this winter, unleashing huge late rallies to win a maiden race, the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in consecutive fashion. In the Fountain of Youth, Greatest Honour appeared to be stalling around the far turn, but once he got going, the son of Tapit gained five lengths in the final furlong to comfortably prevail.
Greatest Honour will seek a sweep of Gulfstream’s Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races when he starts as the heavy favorite in Saturday’s 14th race at Gulfstream, the $750,000 Florida Derby (G1, post time 6:40 p.m. EDT). He is facing a deep field of challengers led by Known Agenda, but the 1 1/8-mile distance should only enhance Greatest Honour’s chances, and I do not think we have seen the best he has to offer yet.
Known Agenda has been a work in progress for five-time Florida Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher.
We know he has talent – in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race at Aqueduct last fall, Known Agenda defeated Greatest Honour by a head, with future Withers Stakes (G3) runner-up Overtook finishing 21 lengths behind in third place. But Known Agenda has also shown flashes of greenness and inexperience, particularly when rallying belatedly to finish fifth in the Sam F. Davis (G3).
But Known Agenda put everything together when adding blinkers for a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park last month, showing improved tactical speed before powering clear to win by 11 lengths. He did not beat the toughest competition but Known Agenda would not be the first Pletcher trainee to parlay a minor victory over 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream into victory in the Florida Derby – Materiality (2015) and Always Dreaming (2017) employed the same strategy.
One more step forward Saturday and Known Agenda can give Greatest Honour a real run for the money.
As a son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper out of the five-time Grade 1-winning A.P. Indy mare Music Note, Mystic Guide has always had the pedigree to improve with maturity and thrive over classic distances. Judging from his powerful six-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn last month, it is clear the chestnut 4-year-old is maturing just as expected.
And I cannot wait to see how he performs when tackling 1 1/4 miles in Saturday’s ninth race at Meydan, the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1, post time 12:50 p.m. EDT).
Even as a 3-year-old, Mystic Guide showed promise over 1 1/4 miles, finishing second in a quality renewal of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). With 5 1/2 additional months to grow up, and with a powerful seasonal debut under his belt, I expect Mystic Guide to post a sharp victory in the Dubai World Cup, giving owner/breeder Godolphin a record-extending ninth victory in the $12 million prize.
A slow early/fast late race shape compromised War Like Goddess when she cut back to 1 3/16 miles for Gulfstream’s The Very One (G3) last month, and the stretch-running daughter of English Channel could only rally belatedly to finish fifth in her first run of the season. Last fall at Churchill Downs, War Like Goddess showed a much stronger kick in a 1 3/8-mile allowance race, surging up the inside to win by 3 1/4 lengths.
War Like Goddess will return to her preferred distance for Saturday’s 13th race at Gulfstream Park, the $100,000 Orchid Stakes (G3, post time 5:55 p.m. ET). The race is not packed with speed on paper, so I do not necessarily expect War Like Goddess to catch her more tactical rival Always Shopping, a runaway winner of the 1 1/2-mile La Prevoyante (G3) at Gulfstream.
But the added distance can help War Like Goddess, and a top-three finish at solid odds should be within reach for her second start off the layoff.