Horses to Watch: Derby contenders and more at Fair Grounds
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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I loved the performance Epicenter put forth in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds last month. After carving out a fast pace for the track and distance, Epicenter turned back a challenge from favored Pappacap, only to get caught in the final strides by a late-rallying longshot.
If Epicenter escapes with a more relaxed lead in Saturday’s 13th race at Fair Grounds, the Risen Star (G2, post time 6:58 p.m. EST), I believe he can deliver a winning effort. There isn’t a ton of speed in the field, so Epicenter figures to sit a perfect trip under hot jockey Joel Rosario.
Just Might
Talk about a picture of speed, consistency and versatility. Just Might has crossed the wire first in seven of his last eight sprint stakes, including four on dirt and four on turf. His lone miss came when sixth in the Phoenix (G2) against tough competition, including next-out Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Aloha West.
All this is a way of saying Just Might should be tough to deny in Saturday’s seventh race at Fair Grounds, the Colonel Power (post time 3:57 p.m.). The distance (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf) should be perfect for Just Might, who looms as the only obvious speed horse in the field. I don’t believe he’ll get caught.
La Crete
It’s hard to believe an undefeated and beautifully bred filly can be listed at 8-1 on the morning line for Saturday’s 12th race at Fair Grounds, the Rachel Alexandra (G2, post time 6:27 p.m.). But La Crete seems to be flying under the radar in this 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier.
Granted, La Crete didn’t run especially fast when forging to victory in the Silverbulletday over this track last month. But the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro showed impressive tenacity to battle back after losing the lead in the homestretch, ultimately winning by one length.
As a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Cavorting (the dam of Cotillion (G1) winner Clairiere), La Crete is bred to improve with maturity, so I don’t think we’ve seen her best yet. I believe she can win the Rachel Alexandra.
Miles D
Saturday’s 10th race at Fair Grounds, the Mineshaft (G3, post time 5:25 p.m.), has drawn a deep and competitive field. One of the main names to know is Miles D, a stoutly bred son of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare.Miles D showed promise as a 3-year-old last year, placing in the Grade 1 Travers before rattling off a pair of gritty victories during the fall.
He was especially sharp in the Discovery at Aqueduct, beating next-out Fred W. Hooper (G3) winner Speaker’s Corner by half a length. Miles D has the pedigree to improve with maturity, so it’s possible he’ll elevate his game to a new level as a 4-year-old.
O Besos
Another key contender in the Mineshaft is O Besos, the fifth-place finisher from the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The son of Orb recently returned from a long layoff to post a fast-finishing victory in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds, earning a solid 101 Brisnet Speed rating.
A slow pace prevented O Besos from recording a quick final time in his comeback effort. But if he gets more pace to chase in the Mineshaft, he can step forward with a competitive showing under hot jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
Olympiad
One of the speed horses O Besos will have to run down in the Mineshaft is Olympiad, and doing so won’t be easy. The Bill Mott trainee showed flashes of talent as a 3-year-old last season, but put everything together in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park last month. Making his first start around two turns, Olympiad tracked a slow pace before rocketing home to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths.
With back-to-back triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Olympiad is one of the fastest horses in the Mineshaft field. If he’s found a new home racing around two turns, watch out–he can win right back on Saturday.
Smile Happy
The slim morning line favorite to win the Risen Star is Smile Happy, whose 2-for-2 juvenile campaign culminated with a flashy victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. Smile Happy defeated a strong field in the Kentucky Jockey Club, with next-out graded stakes winners Classic Causeway and White Abarrio among his beaten rivals.
Smile Happy is returning from a layoff in the Risen Star, so there’s a chance he won’t be cranked for a peak performance. But in the long run, Smile Happy figures to enjoy a strong sophomore season. The Kentucky Derby looms as a viable goal for the Kenny McPeek trainee.
Untreated
The fourth and final Mineshaft entrant on my watch list is Untreated, a Todd Pletcher trainee in the midst of a positive form progression. The son of Nyquist won back-to-back allowance races over one mile at Aqueduct late last year, on both occasions unleashing midfield rallies to record quick final times.
I believe Untreated has upside for improvement, and I’m excited to see what he can accomplish while stepping up in class at Fair Grounds. It’s encouraging to note jockey Luis Saez (a 29 percent winner teaming up with Pletcher over the last two months) is named to ride.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?