Horses to Watch: Debut-winning filly stands out for Baffert

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future. 

New to the Watch list

Kinza

Is Kinza a grade-stakes winner in the making? The Bob Baffert-trained juvenile filly looked like one when debuting in a six-furlong, maiden special weight Friday at Santa Anita. After vying for command through fractions of 21.92 and 45.24 seconds, she kicked away to dominate by 7 1/2 lengths in the fast time of 1:09.79, earning a flashy 96 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. Best of all, Kinza ran her final furlong in a strong 12.18 seconds, which bodes well for stretching out around two turns.

Runaway Happy

Runaway Happy was tons the best when debuting in a six-furlong, maiden special weight for Ohio-bred 2-year-old fillies Saturday at Mahoning Valley. The daughter of Runhappy led by daylight at every call and powered clear to win by an easy 21 lengths. Her final time of 1:12.73 was respectable over a muddy track. A half-hour earlier, 3-year-old gelding Rivoli required 1:13.19 to win a non-state-restricted allowance for non-winners of three races. I have the feeling Runaway Happy will nab her fair share of stakes in 2024.

Skelly

In his first start off a seven-month layoff, three-time stakes winner Skelly picked up a sixth consecutive victory, leading all the way to win a $62,500 allowance optional claimer Saturday at Oaklawn by 1 1/4 lengths. Skelly ran his final two furlongs in 11.98 and 12.15 seconds to record a quick final time of 1:09.66, suggesting a strong winter-spring campaign is on the horizon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post a repeat victory in Oaklawn’s Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3).

Recent Watch list winners

Carbone

Runaway Churchill Downs debut winner Carbone brought his record to 2-for-2 with a flashy victory in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer Sunday at Oaklawn. Stretching from six furlongs to one mile proved to be no obstacle as Carbone led all the way through splits of 23.40, 47.76 and 1:13.04 to win by four lengths at 1:38.63. He ran his final furlong in a solid 12.56 seconds and looks like a road to the Kentucky Derby contender in the making for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

Worth another try

Signator

Finished fourth when making his stakes debut in the 1 1/8-mile Queens County at Aqueduct but didn’t run a bad race, rallying from seven lengths off the pace to miss victory by a half-length. The early pace was slow at 24.15, 48.59 and 1:13.04, and Signator ran his final three furlongs in a strong 36.63 seconds, so this is an effort he can build on.

Upcoming entries

Gettysburg Address

Gettysburg Address may have faltered in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs, fading to finish fourth, but that race took place over a sloppy track. He won his debut over dry footing at Ellis Park and is eligible to rebound while dropping blinkers in Monday’s ninth race at Oaklawn, the Smarty Jones at 5:14 p.m. EST.

Mystik Dan

It’s unclear yet whether Smarty Jones entrant Mystik Dan can handle route distances. After making a mid-race move in a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, he faded to finish fifth. But Mystik Dan showed enough talent and finishing speed when dominating a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 7 3/4 lengths. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him surprise at Oaklawn, even while stretching out around two turns for the first time.

Off the Watch list

Durante

He faltered as an odds-on favorite in the Gravesend at Aqueduct, fading from a pace-tracking position to finish third by 4 1/2 lengths. He has lost two straight, and his form is possibly starting to slip, so I’ll drop Durante from my watch list.

Lightline

He squared off against Carbone on Sunday at Oaklawn and rallied from last place in a field of 12 to finish second, beaten by four lengths. It was a decent try, but after two straight defeats, I’ll want to see Lightline move forward a bit more before backing him again.