Horses to Watch: Is Tamahere Chad Brown's next star?
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List:
A listed stakes winner in her native France, Tamahere fired off a huge effort in Saturday’s Sands Point (G2) at Belmont Park, her U.S. debut for trainer Chad Brown. Reserved near the back of the pack through splits of :23.87, :47.54, and 1:11.68, Tamahere displayed a wicked turn-of-foot through the final quarter, dashing home in approximately :23 flat to defeat graded stakes winner Speaktomeofsummer by two lengths in 1:35.21.
A daughter of rising star stallion Wootoon Bassett, Tamahere made a great visual impression in the Sands Point, winning for fun with something in reserve. She was barely asked for any run at all and essentially took command under her own power, suggesting the sky is the limit for this exciting filly.
Recent Winners:
Dayoutoftheoffice
Brought her record to a perfect 3-for-3 with a comfortable victory in the Frizette (G1), tracking the pace before holding off Spinaway (G1) winner Vequist down the lane to win by two lengths. Her final time of 1:35.82 was respectable, translating to a 92 Beyer, so you can bet Dayoutoftheoffice will be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She still hasn’t been seriously challenged.
Stepped up in class and distance for Saturday’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park and turned in a beautiful performance. After rating professionally inside and behind rivals through modest early fractions, Happy Saver slipped through an opening along the rail and battled gamely to win by three-quarters of a length.
Happy Saver stopped the clock in a solid 2:01.77, earning a 100 Beyer. Undefeated in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, Happy Saver is still on the rise and could make a late run at the 3-year-old division championship if he wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Harvey’s Lil Goil
Cutting back in distance worked wonders for Harvey’s Lil Goil in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), as the 3-year-old daughter of American Pharoah tracked a steady pace before taking command to win by three-quarters of a length.
Harvey’s Lil Goil was losing ground at the finish, so even 1 1/8 miles might be a little farther than she prefers to run. But she showed determination to hold off challenges from stakes winner Micheline and Magic Attitude, so I suspect Harvey’s Lil Goil will develop into a tough miler in 2021.
Royal Approval
Fresh off a resounding maiden win at Kentucky Downs, Royal Approval was an odds-on favorite to win Sunday’s Matron (G3) at Belmont Park, and she definitely lived up to expectations. After tracking modest opening fractions of :22.53 and :46.28, Royal Approval flew home the final quarter-mile in less than :22 4/5 to prevail by three-quarters of a length over pacesetter Union Gables.
Trained by Wesley Ward, Royal Approval appears destined for a start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) or Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), and victory in either race could be well within reach for this speedy daughter of Tiznow.
Worth Another Try
Coastal Defense
Lightly-raced 4-year-old didn’t run badly in Saturday’s Fayette (G2) at Keeneland. After steadying behind rivals and losing ground on the far turn, the son of Curlin got bounced around between rivals turning for home and continued to race without much room down the lane. Even without a clear path ahead of him, Coastal Defense rallied with interest to finish fourth by 4 1/4 lengths. He’ll be a price next time, and I’m willing to bet he shows improvement with a clean trip.
Magic Attitude
Granted, Magic Attitude flattened out in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), finishing third by 1 1/4 lengths after unleashing a big rally around the turn. But this was only her second start in North America, and she was running back just three weeks after posting an impressive win in the Belmont Oaks (G1). I’m optimistic this beautifully-bred daughter of Galileo will develop into an elite-level 4-year-old in 2021.
My Sister Nat
Although My Sister Nat was beaten to second place in the Flower Bowl (G1), she ran a winning race in defeat. The pace was on the slow side, and My Sister Nat had to rally wide into the stretch, running 17 feet (about two lengths) farther than the winner. Despite these obstacles, My Sister Nat flew home the final quarter-mile in approximately :22 2/5 (quicker than anyone else) to fall short of victory by a head.
My Sister Nat’s lack of tactical speed can be frustrating, but if she gets more pace to work with in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), she could be a longshot worth betting at Keeneland.
Mystic Guide
Turned in an admirable effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, racing significantly wider than Happy Saver to finish second by less than a length. According to data from Trakus, Mystic Guide ran 47 feet farther than the winner, which equates to nearly six lengths. Slowly but surely, this son of Ghostzapper is progressing in the right direction, so I’m excited to see what he can accomplish this fall and in 2021.
Reinvestment Risk
True, Reinvestment Risk was beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Jackie’s Warrior in the Champagne (G1), but this was hardly a discouraging effort. When Jackie’s Warrior secured an uncontested lead, Reinvestment Risk was put in a tricky position trying to keep the speedy front-runner honest without burning out in pursuit.
While he ultimately failed to keep pace with Jackie’s Warrior, Reinvestment Risk finished clearly second-best in a fast race, pulling 8 3/4 lengths clear of Iroquois (G3) runner-up Midnight Bourbon. I remain confident this Chad Brown trainee has a bright future.
Off the Watch List
Tacitus
Had every chance to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup after securing an uncontested lead through slow fractions, but came up empty in the homestretch and weakened to finish third.
Upcoming Entries
Aquaphobia
Assuming forecasts for clear weather hold steady, United Nations (G1) winner Aquaphobia should have every chance to prevail in Thursday’s eighth race at Keeneland, the Sycamore (G3, post time 4:57 p.m. ET).
After finishing third in a slow-paced renewal of the Sword Dancer (G1) over soft turf, the conditions of the Sycamore should be much more suitable for Aquaphobia, a former claimed trainer by Mike Maker. The competition is easier and the turf should be firm, setting the stage for a big rebound.
Which horses caught your eye last week?