Horses to Watch: Charlatan, Colonel Liam impress
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
I don’t think it’s possible to overstate the magnitude of Charlatan’s performance in the 7-furlong Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita. Cutting back to 7 furlongs while returning from an injury-induced layoff, Charlatan showed a new dimension by rating kindly in second place behind blazing fractions of :21.81 and :43.95. Then he turned on the afterburners.
Casually rolling up alongside the previously undefeated Nashville, Charlatan unleashed a spectacular burst of acceleration when encouraged by jockey Mike Smith. Seemingly in the blink of an eye, Charlatan opened up a four-length lead, and through the final 16th of a mile he simply cruised along under his own power to score by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:21.50.
This rapid time produced a strong 107 Beyer speed figure, and considering Charlatan has been just as effective racing around two turns, the sky is the limit for his potential in 2021. The Pegasus World Cup (G1) will be ripe for Charlatan’s conquest if he makes the trip to Gulfstream Park.
Recent winners
In his first start since finishing a troubled fourth in the Saratoga Derby, Colonel Liam blew away a deep field in the Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream Park. Reserved in mid-pack early on while racing wide, Colonel Liam produced a strong rally when called upon by jockey Irad Ortiz, dashing the fourth quarter-mile in :22.60 and the final 16th in :05.83 to trounce a bevy of stakes winners by 3 1/4 lengths.
Colonel Liam hit the finish line in a quick 1:40.95, and the fact he produced such an impressive performance while rallying wide into a slow pace is significant. The son of Liam’s Map clearly has a ton of talent and might even prove to be Grade 1 caliber in 2021.
Worth another try
No one was going to beat Charlatan in the Malibu, but Express Train came closest with a game performance. Rallying smoothly into fast splits of :21.81 and :43.95, Express Train never wavered down the homestretch and battled to gain the runner-up spot, 4 1/2 lengths behind Charlatan.
This was a step in the right direction for Express Train, who has shown flashes of significant talent under the patient care of trainer John Shirreffs. He’s bred to run farther than 7 furlongs, so he has plenty of potential races to target in 2021. There’s surely a graded stakes with his name on it out there somewhere.
The improving 3-year-old Idol really ran too good to lose in the San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita. After rating behind the leaders in third place, the son of Curlin gamely forged through a narrow opening along the rail, battling tenaciously with pacesetters Take the One O One and Mucho Gusto down the homestretch. To Idol’s credit, he won the battle — but he ultimately lost the war, as the stretch-running Kiss Today Goodbye came flying on the far outside to defeat Idol by half a length.
Nevertheless, this was an admirable effort from Idol, who should only improve while stretching back out beyond 1 1/16 miles. A race such as the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita Handicap (G1) should be right up his alley.
Pedestrian early fractions of :24.91, :49.67, and 1:14.89 favored speed horses in the 1 1/4-mile American Oaks (G1) on turf at Santa Anita; in fact, the fillies running 1-2-3 early held on to finish 1-3-2 at the wire. A :22.63 final quarter made it difficult for the stretch-running Luck Money to close ground, but to her credit she stayed on to finish sixth, beaten just 2 1/2 lengths for the runner-up spot.
Luck Money can return to the winner’s circle if she encounters a fairer pace (perhaps over her preferred 1 1/2-mile trip) next time out.
Off the Watch List
It wasn’t terribly surprising to see Nashville lose the Malibu after carving out blazing fractions of :21.81 and :43.95. But I didn’t expect him to give way as readily as he did once passed by Charlatan. Seemingly discouraged by the winner’s sudden burst of acceleration, Nashville weakened to finish fourth by 8 1/4 lengths.
Cutting back to 6 furlongs might help Nashville’s chances next time, but I will want to see how he bounces back before returning him to my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of horses to watch.