Horses to Watch: Ce Ce, Mystic Guide could advance
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Two-time Grade 1-winning router Ce Ce fired off a deceptively strong effort in the 7-furlong Derby City Distaff (G1) on Saturday at Churchill Downs. After settling 2 1/4 lengths behind an opening quarter in :21.95, Ce Ce advanced through the teeth of an unprecedented :21.81 second quarter and eventually made her way to second place through 6 furlongs in 1:08.15.
Ce Ce understandably weakened in the drive, but she was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths while finishing fourth. Stretching back out in distance can return Ce Ce to the winner’s circle next time out.
The addition of blinkers made a big difference for former watch list member Mystic Guide in Saturday’s Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. Whereas the son of Ghostzapper had rallied only belatedly to finish third in the Peter Pan (G3), he showed greater focus in the Jim Dandy, advancing smoothly around the turn and down the stretch to prevail in a solid 1:49.00.
Produced by the five-time Grade 1-winning A.P. Indy mare Music Note, Mystic Guide posted a solid 95 Beyer speed figure and could be bound for the Preakness (G1). This late-blooming colt should only continue improving with maturity.
It’s clear this 2-year-old son of Brody’s Cause has a powerful engine under his hood. After producing a huge late rally to win his debut sprinting 5 furlongs at Ellis Park, the Dale Romans trainee had no trouble stepping up in class and distance for Saturday’s 1-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, rallying with authority to score by 2 1/2 lengths.
Sittin On Go sprinted the final quarter in about :24.30 to hit the finish line in a quick 1:35.00. This was a serious effort from a promising colt, one who is now a clear-cut contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
This Kenny McPeek-trained 2-year-old filly won her debut nicely over the Saratoga turf course, then transitioned to dirt for an off-the-turf renewal of Friday’s 7-furlong P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga and absolutely romped. After pressing quick fractions of :22.82 and :45.67, Simply Ravishing sprinted the final 3 furlongs in approximately :36.10 to roll home on top by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:21.85.
A daughter of Laoban, Simply Ravishing has already been mentioned as a contender for the 2021 Alabama (G1) at Saratoga, so this promising young filly is one to follow through the fall and beyond.
Recent winners
Happy Saver
This Todd Pletcher trainee delivered another exciting performance to win Monday’s Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. After rating 2 1/2 lengths back in third place through modest fractions of :24.75, :48.82, and 1:13.13, Happy Saver rocketed the final 3 furlongs in an excellent :35 4/5 to beat pacesetter Monday Morning Qb in 1:49.15 for 1 1/8 miles.
With three victories from as many starts, this promising son of Super Saver could be bound for the Preakness (G1). The strong turn-of-foot he repeatedly has displayed could make him formidable at a price.
Princess Noor
She never encountered a serious challenge in Sunday’s Del Mar Debutante (G1) at Del Mar, tracking the early pace before assuming command with complete authority. Jockey Victor Espinoza barely asked the $1.35 million auction purchase for run down the stretch, yet Princess Noor still drew away to dominate the 7-furlong sprint by 6 1/2 lengths.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Princess Noor is now 2-for-2, with the Chandelier (G2) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) looming as future targets. The sky is the limit for this abundantly talented prospect.
Worth another try
Honor A. P.
Bumped at the start and forced to the back of the pack in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, Honor A. P. never had a fair chance to run his best race. The Derby unfolded in quick fashion from start to finish — the final time of 2:00.61 was the seventh-fastest ever—so I thought Honor A. P. ran deceptively well under the circumstances to finish fourth with a very wide rally. A clean start next time could produce a victory, regardless of the competition he faces.
Mundaye Call
A destructive speed duel prevented Mundaye Call from showing her best in Friday’s Eight Belles (G2) at Churchill Downs. Breaking from the rail, Mundaye Call battled for command through splits of :22.11, :44.14, and 1:08.52 before understandably weakening to finish fourth. She faced pressure throughout and never got a chance to relax, so I’ll give Mundaye Call another try next time. An easier pace should help her bounce back.
My Sister Nat
The late-running My Sister Nat was compromised by another pedestrian pace in the 1 3/8-mile Glens Falls (G2) on Saturday at Saratoga. Trailing the field through splits of :26.76, :53.22, 1:19.58, and 1:44.61, My Sister Nat had little chance to win, but nevertheless sprinted the final 3 furlongs in :34 1/5 to finish second by a length.
My Sister Nat was the only late runner to make an impact in the Glens Falls, so if she catches a fairer pace next time, she’ll have a chance to rebound.
Reinvestment Risk
Though he was beaten as the favorite Sunday’s Hopeful (G1), Reinvestment Risk didn’t run a bad race by any means. Forced to chase front-running Saratoga Special (G2) winner Jackie’s Warrior through fast splits of :22.56, :44.83, 1:08.33, and 1:21.29 (the latter a stakes record), Reinvestment Risk never gave up and was stubbornly gaining ground at the wire. I’m optimistic we haven’t seen his best yet.
Tacitus
Son of Tapit took things easy following his runaway victory in the Suburban (G2) and may not have been fully cranked for Saturday’s Woodward (G1) at Saratoga. Returning from a two-month layoff, Tacitus tracked the pace throughout, but failed to run down front-running Global Campaign and settled for second place by 1 3/4 lengths.
Assuming Tacitus bounces back with some quick workouts — more like the bullet moves he posted prior to the Suburban — I’ll expect a rebound in a race like the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).
Off the Watch List
Breaking the Rules
Enjoyed an ideal trip in Monday’s Lure Stakes at Saratoga, tracking the early pacesetters through modest fractions, but failed to accelerate when called upon and settled for fourth in a field of five. Considering he had defeated recent Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) winner Digital Age in June at Belmont, this race marked a regression for Breaking the Rules, and I’m not sure what to expect from him next time out.
Dr Post
Though he was favored at 3-4, Dr Post never seriously threatened in Saturday’s Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga, flattening out to finish fourth. I suspect racing 1 1/8 miles around two turns isn’t Dr Post’s forte, and I suspect he’ll improve when cutting back in distance down the road. But for the time being, Dr Post appears to be regressing, and perhaps he’ll need a break before bouncing back.
Fort Worth
Had every chance to win a 7-furlong allowance race on Monday at Saratoga, where he was favored at 3-10. But the Todd Pletcher trainee faltered after taking command in the homestretch and finished third by 3 1/4 lengths without an obvious excuse.
Infuriated
Carved out the pace in Saturday’s Deputed Testamony Stakes at Laurel Park but gave way turning for home and finished last of six in a sharp regression from his previous form.
Mutasaabeq
Received plenty of pace to chase in Monday’s Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga, but couldn’t keep up as the race progressed in faster and faster fashion, eventually coming home third by 12 1/2 lengths. It wasn’t a bad run — placing in Grade 1 company is always a positive — but I didn’t see enough from Mutasaabeq to keep him on my watch list.
Officiating
Received plenty of play in a 7-furlong maiden sprint on Saturday at Saratoga, but failed to produce a meaningful rally down the lane, passing tired rivals to finish fifth by 12 1/2 lengths.
Rombauer
Failed to unleash the acceleration I anticipated in Monday’s Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes, rallying only belatedly after a troubled beginning to finish sixth by two lengths.
Sally’s Curlin
Stretch-running daughter of Curlin received exactly the setup I hoped for in Saturday’s Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs, with the leaders dueling through blistering splits of :21.95 and :43.77. But Sally’s Curlin fell too far off the early pace and rallied only mildly to finish third, beaten three lengths. Considering her setup on Friday was otherwise perfect, a drop in class might be necessary for Sally’s Curlin to return to the winner’s circle.
Therideofalifetime
Flashed speed in Saturday’s Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, but the 1-mile distance was evidently too far, as Therideofalifetime weakened steadily in the homestretch to finish fourth by 9 1/2 lengths. A return to sprinting is likely on the horizon for this two-time graded stakes-placed youngster.
Upcoming entries
Harvey’s Lil Goil
A return to turf could be just what the doctor ordered for Harvey’s Lil Goil. Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) over the Churchill Downs turf course in June, Harvey’s Lil Goil didn’t run badly at all when tackling dirt in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama (G1), unleashing a sustained move to challenge heavy favorite Swiss Skydiver before weakening slightly to finish third.
Harvey’s Lil Goil will switch back to grass for Thursday’s eighth race at Kentucky Downs, the Dueling Grounds Oaks (post time 3:59 p.m. ET). It won’t be an easy spot — she’ll face a full field of talented turfers, and the 1 5/16-mile distance might be longer than she prefers. But a strong effort could bring the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) into play for this capable daughter of American Pharoah.
Here is Johnson's complete, updated list of horses to watch: