Horses to Watch: Julia Shining faces champ on Ky. Oaks trail

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

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Julia Shining

Just how talented is Julia Shining? There’s no way to know just yet. As a daughter of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of the Grade 1-winning A.P. Indy mare Dreaming of Julia, Julia Shining is a full sister to two-time Eclipse Award winner Malathaat, so the potential exists for Julia Shining to develop into a top-caliber filly.

Certainly Julia Shining has impressed so far. In her debut traveling seven furlongs and 184 feet at Keeneland, Julia Shining unleashed a giant outside rally to trounce next-out winner Positano Sunset by 2 3/4 lengths. Then in the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct, Julia Shining again unleashed a wide charge from off the pace to win the road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier by a neck.

Julia Shining is slated to kick off her 3-year-old campaign in Saturday’s ninth race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Suncoast (post time 4:48 p.m.). She’s facing a formidable rival in the form of champion 2-year-old filly Wonder Wheel, fresh off victories in the Alcibiades (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. But Julia Shining isn’t much slower than Wonder Wheel from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so with her pedigree geared toward late maturity, Julia Shining has a shot to improve in the Suncoast and spring a surprise.

Caramel Swirl

It’s been a long time since we last saw Caramel Swirl in action, so it’s easy to forget how much talent she’s displayed. Winner of the 2021 Raven Run (G2) sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland as a 3-year-old, Caramel Swirl started only twice in 2022, dominating an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Belmont Park before finishing second in Saratoga’s Ballerina Handicap (G1) behind future Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Goodnight Olive.

Now 5 years old, Caramel Swirl will end a 5 1/2-month layoff in Saturday’s seventh race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Minaret (post time 3:27 p.m. EST). Whereas none of her rivals have ever posted a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating, Caramel Swirl has done so twice, cementing the Godolphin homebred as the horse to beat for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Off the Watch List

Sea Dreamer

Sea Dreamer looked like a stakes star in the making after smashing a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar by 9 1/2 lengths. But that flashy performance took place on July 24, 2021, and Sea Dreamer hasn’t run since. She did record five workouts at Woodbine last fall, but then disappeared from the work tab without racing. At this point I wonder if Sea Dreamer has retired, so I’m removing her to tidy my watch list. I’ll consider adding her back on if she pops back up on the work tab again.

Which horses do you have your eyes on?