Horses to Watch: Caracaro impresses in Peter Pan defeat
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Although Caracaro was beaten to the finish line in the Peter Pan (G3) on opening day at Saratoga, you can argue he ran a better race than the victorious Country Grammer. Whereas the latter colt saved ground every step of the way, Caracaro raced outside throughout, running 46 feet (nearly six lengths) farther than the winner.
Even still, Caracaro might have overcome this obstacle if not for a bumping incident down the homestretch. While in the heat of a neck-and-neck battle, Caracaro drifted in and Country Grammer drifted out, and in the ensuing collision Caracaro lost enough momentum to concede the lead and lose by a neck.
The winning time of 1:49.79 was solid over a track that wasn’t playing particularly fast. Considering Caracaro was returning from a six-month layoff and negotiating two turns for the first time, his performance is worthy of applause, and I’m eager to see what this son of Uncle Mo can do next time out.
Undefeated and unchallenged in two starts for trainer Timothy Hamm, Dayoutoftheoffice looks like a star juvenile in the making. The daughter of 2019 leading sire Into Mischief was tons the best in her debut sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream Park, leading all the way to score by 4 3/4 lengths.
But Dayoutoftheoffice showed a new dimension in the Schuylerville (G3) on opening day at Saratoga, rating a length off the lead through splits of :22.29 and :45.57 before advancing to seize command in the homestretch. From there, she was never remotely threatened, crossing the wire half a dozen lengths in front while wrapped up by jockey Junior Alvarado.
Dayoutoftheoffice reached the finish line in 1:10.43, a snappy time when you consider the 3-year-old filly Palace Avenger required 1:10.79 to win an allowance race earlier in the afternoon. The Aug. 12 Adirondack (G2) and/or the Sept. 6 Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga appear ripe for conquest by Dayoutoftheoffice, hence her inclusion on my watch list.
Off the Watch List
Whereas Caracaro caught my eye with his gutsy effort in the Peter Pan, I was a bit disappointed by the performance of 7-4 favorite Mystic Guide. An impressive maiden winner at Fair Grounds in March, Mystic Guide had finished ahead of Country Grammer in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on June 4 at Belmont Park and figured to appreciate the two-turn configuration and 1 1/8-mile distance of the Peter Pan.
But when the gates opened, Mystic Guide broke a bit sluggishly and fall as many as 11 lengths off the early pace. For a time it appeared as though he wasn’t going to fire, and while he did get untracked late in the race, his belatedly rally ultimately left him 3 1/2 lengths behind the top pair.
I still believe this beautifully-bred Godolphin homebred has the potential to become a stakes winner, but his defeat in the Peter Pan came without any obvious excuses, so for the time being I have to remove him from my watch list. He’ll be quick to rejoin my radar if he shows improvement next time out.
Upcoming Entries
As a daughter of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare, Paris Lights is bred on the same cross as the four-time Grade 1-placed filly Point of Honor, runner-up in the 2019 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1).
Perhaps Paris Lights can go one better than her close relative when facing five rivals in the 2020 renewal of the Coaching Club American Oaks (Saratoga race 10 on Saturday, post time 6:16 p.m. ET). A WinStar Farm homebred racing for WinStar Stablemates Racing, Paris Lights finished third in her debut sprinting but is 2-for-2 since stretching out around two turns, dominating maiden and allowance races at Churchill Downs by a minimum of 3 1/4 lengths.
Which horses do you have your eye on?