Horses to Watch: Allowance winner joins 6 BC contenders
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Apprehend has long shown flashes of talent sprinting. In his September 2021 debut dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita, he ran second behind future champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Corniche. And in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Del Mar earlier this year, Apprehend finished half a length behind 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up C Z Rocket.
But Apprehend elevated his game to a different level when stretching out around two turns for the first time in a Saturday allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita. After pressing early fractions of 22.38 seconds, 46.01 and 1:10.47, Apprehend took command and finished up strongly (final two furlongs in 12.90 seconds and 12.85) to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths in 1:36.22.
As a son of long-winded Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate, Apprehend always had the pedigree to shine running long. Perhaps this Peter Miller trainee finally has found his calling, setting the stage for stakes wins in the near future.
Recent Watch List winners
Picked up his second straight Grade 1 win and his third victory from as many starts when cruising to a 5 1/4-length score in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Cave Rock led all the way through fractions of 22.96 seconds, 46.82 and 1:11.07 on his way to a fast final time of 1:43.05 . The Daily Racing Form assigned the performance a 104 Beyer Speed Figure, tied for the highest number earned by any 2-year-old this year. Cave Rock will be tough to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next month.
Two-time Breeders’ Cup winner staked his claims for favoritism in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint with a sharp victory in the Woodford (G2) sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland. Blazing early fractions of 21.25 seconds and 43.42 failed to tire the speedy pacesetter, who stayed on strongly down the homestretch to beat deep closer Oceanic by 1 1/2 lengths in the stakes-record time of 1:01.39.
Secured her second straight Grade 1 win when strolling to victory in the Juddmonte Spinster (G1) at Keeneland. Last year’s champion 3-year-old filly rated a couple lengths off the pace before seizing command with a sharp move to draw off and win by 5 1/4 lengths, staking her credentials for favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
If anyone can challenge Malathaat for favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, it’s Nest. The abundantly talented 3-year-old filly followed her blowout victories in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) with an equally impressive triumph in the Beldame (G2) at Belmont at the Big A. Facing older rivals for the first time, Nest tracked the pace for six furlongs before roaring away to win by 9 3/4 lengths. The daughter of Curlin is bred to improve with maturity and is clearly living up to her pedigree.
New Mexico-bred star continued her ascent through the graded ranks with a blowout victory in the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) at Keeneland. The 4-year-old filly carved out fractions of 22.75 and 46.02 seconds before kicking clear powerfully down the homestretch, running the final two furlongs in 11.69 and 12.32 seconds to win the six-furlong sprint by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:10.03. Clearly Slammed enjoys racing at Keeneland, so the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint looms as a viable goal.
Standout long-distance grass mare brought her record racing 1 1/2 miles to 5-for-5 with a convincing victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont at the Big A. Facing males for the first time, War Like Goddess tracked respectable early fractions of 24.25, 48.96, 1:13.68 and 1:39.10 before rallying strongly down the homestretch to score by 2 3/4 lengths. War Like Goddess defeated several Grade 1 winners and ran her final quarter-mile in about 23.64 seconds, so she’s shaping up as a serious Breeders’ Cup Turf threat.
Worth another try
Showed spark down the homestretch of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, rallying belatedly from 10th place to finish fourth and missing third place by a head. Instant Coffee was stretching out in distance off a maiden victory sprinting seven furlongs at Saratoga, so he performed well in his stakes and route debut.
Ran a gutsy race when stepping up sharply in class and distance for the Breeders’ Futurity, engaging in a three-way duel for early supremacy before battling on down the homestretch to finish second by a neck against Hopeful (G1) winner Forte. Loggins pulled 6 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher, so this Brad Cox trainee clearly has serious talent. He has run only twice and still has upside.
Lost Ark ran into trouble at multiple points in the Breeders’ Futurity but fought on down the homestretch to finish sixth. The previously undefeated Sapling winner deserves a chance to rebound with a clean trip next time.
Although Moira officially placed eighth in the E. P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine, the 3-year-old filly ran far better than first appears. Facing older rivals for the first time while simultaneously making her grass debut, the runaway Queen’s Plate winner rallied gamely up the rail to cross the finish line second, beaten a neck by proven Group 1 winner Rougir. Unfortunately, Moira interfered with a rival and was disqualified to eighth place, but this doesn’t detract from the fact Moira proved her talent against Grade 1 company under tough circumstances.
Put up a good fight against Cave Rock in the American Pharoah, racing in second place at every call and eventually pulling 3 1/2 lengths clear of third-place finisher Hejazi. National Treasure couldn’t keep pace with the winner, but he was clearly best of the rest and ought to win a stakes of his own in the near future.
Although Regal Glory was beaten to second place as a clear favorite in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, she ran an admirable race under tricky circumstances. Diana (G1) winner In Italian escaped on a lonely lead through modest fractions of 23.37, 47.00 and 1:10.45, so Regal Glory –attempting to rally from fourth place – didn’t have an ideal opportunity to catch up. In Italian rocketed the final two furlongs in 11.35 and 11.52 seconds to win by one length in 1:33.22 seconds, but Regal Glory was closing ground down the homestretch, running her own final two furlongs in about 11.25 and 11.27 seconds. That equates to a blazing 22.52-second final quarter-mile, so give Regal Glory a better setup next time and she can bounce back to the winner’s circle.
Off the Watch List
Newgate
Suffered his second straight defeat when fading to fifth place in the Breeders’ Futurity. Newgate couldn’t quite keep up with Loggins after dueling for the early lead and might need a drop in class to get back in the winner’s circle.
Upcoming entry
Frank’s Honor thrived in his first start around two turns on Oct. 1 at Churchill Downs, wiring a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight by five lengths. Now the stoutly bred Kenny McPeek trainee is stepping up slightly in class for Wednesday’s seventh race at Keeneland, a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer (post time 4:12 p.m. EDT). Frank’s Honor is facing a large field and running back on short rest, but he’s progressing in the right direction and likely has more to offer.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.