Horses to Watch: 12 for Breeders’ Cup Friday + 2 others
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Upcoming entries
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Life Talk
A 6 1/2-length maiden winner racing one mile at Saratoga, Life Talk faltered when tackling a sloppy track in her stakes debut, making a mid-race move in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont at the Big A before flattening out to finish third. She’s bred to shine racing around two turns, so stretching out over 1 1/16 miles for the Juvenile Fillies can help Life Talk move forward under four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
Possibly the heaviest favorite of the entire Breeders’ Cup is Tamara, a 4-5 morning-line choice after dominating her first two starts at Del Mar. A 2 1/4-length maiden victory preceded a 6 3/4-length romp in the Del Mar Debutante (G1), and the latter win was flattered when distant fourth-place finish Chatalas, beaten 12 3/4 lengths, returned to take the Chandelier (G2) in her next start. If Tamara brings her A game to the Breeders’ Cup, she’ll be tough to beat.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Austere
Unbeaten filly unleashed a strong rally to win her debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Ellis Park, then stepped up in class for the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies and parlayed a pace-tracking trip into a three-length victory. She’s facing much tougher competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but Austere is progressing in the right direction and can’t be counted out of the mix.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
General Partner
Could General Partner be a live long shot in the Juvenile? He impressed when wiring a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga by four lengths, and his runner-up effort in the Champagne (G1) wasn’t bad given that he carved out a fast pace. In 2017, trainer Chad Brown prepared Good Magic to win the Juvenile off a second-place finish in the Champagne. Perhaps General Partner can follow the same path.
Fierceness struggled in the Champagne, finishing a distant seventh, but if you draw a line through that no-show effort and remember his stunning 11 3/4-length maiden victory sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, you can make a case for Fierceness to upset the Juvenile. Take note, three of the horses Fierceness conquered in his debut, Air of Defiance, Billal and Apollo Ten, have come back to win.
Locked was spectacular winning a one-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga, running his final quarter-mile in a blazing 23.94 seconds to trounce next-out winner Drum Roll Please by 7 1/4 lengths. He followed up with a gritty half-length score in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), overcoming a wide trip to beat ground-saving The Wine Steward by half a length. Taking all of these factors together, Locked has to be viewed as the horse to beat.
Three starts, three victories. Prince of Monaco has yet to race farther than seven furlongs, but he’s been unstoppable in sprints, most notably defeating future American Pharoah (G1) winner Muth by 4 1/4 lengths in the Best Pal (G3). Subsequently victorious in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), Prince of Monaco enters the Juvenile off a two-month layoff but can’t be counted out of contention.
The Wine Steward benefited from a ground-saving trip when finishing second by half a length against Locked in the Breeders’ Futurity. But to give him credit, he put up a good fight against the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite and pulled 3 3/4 lengths clear of the rest. The stoutly bred son of Vino Rosso is improving with every start and could factor again in the Juvenile.
Runner-up in the Hopeful (G1) and victorious in the Champagne (G1), Timberlake has made a habit of beating good horses. Remember his 9 1/4-length maiden victory at Ellis Park? His beaten rivals included future Iroquois (G3) winner West Saratoga and Bourbon (G2) winner Can Group. Timberlake is progressing in the right direction and could give trainer Brad Cox a second Juvenile win, following champion Essential Quality in 2020.
The stoutly bred Wine Me Up has shown impressive speed from an early age, most notably finishing a pacesetting second in the American Pharoah. A son of Vino Rosso, Wine Me Up has the pedigree to improve with maturity and enters the Juvenile off fast five-furlong workouts, so don’t count him out of the mix for a piece of the purse.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Agate Road
Beaten by a nose in his debut on dirt, Agate Road since has gone 2-for-2 on turf, unleashing a giant surge to win a maiden special weight at Saratoga before rallying with equal authority to take the Pilgrim (G2) at Belmont at the Big A. He rates as one of the main North American hopefuls in the Juvenile Turf, especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle.
California-based Endlessly has won each of his first three starts by 2 1/4 lengths, including the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) and Zuma Beach (G3). He’s stepping up in class for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but he boasts a nice stretch kick and a home-court advantage. Perhaps he can emulate his sire, Oscar Performance, who won this race at Santa Anita in 2016.
Other upcoming entries
Banishing
Banishing impressed in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds last December, dominating by 8 1/2 lengths, but subsequently misfired when fifth in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer in February. Banishing hasn’t run since then, but he enters Thursday’s eighth race at Churchill Downs, a one-mile allowance, post time 4:33 p.m. EDT, off fast five-furlong workouts and looks ready to rebound.
Louisiana-bred sensation Touchuponastar is stepping outside the state-bred ranks for Friday’s second race at Delta Downs, the Delta Mile, post time 6:43 p.m., but that shouldn’t stop him from winning. Touchuponastar is 3-for-3 at Delta Downs and ran well against graded-stakes company when second in the Steve Sexton Mile (G3) during the spring, so Touchuponastar has every chance to record an eighth victory from his last nine starts.
Off the Watch List
Arcangelo
The 2023 Belmont and Travers (G1) winner is scratching from the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a hoof problem and is being retired to stud at Lane’s End Farm.
Practical Move
The 2023 Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner sadly died of an apparent cardiac event while training for a start in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.