Horses to Watch: 9 to play in post-Christmas stakes
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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Never out of the trifecta in eight starts, Dr. Schivel is a nose away from bringing a six-race win streak into Sunday’s 10th race at Santa Anita, the Malibu (G1, post time 6:49 p.m. EST).
A two-time Grade 1 winner over distances from six to seven furlongs, Dr. Schivel enters the Malibu off a narrow defeat against older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. On that occasion, Dr. Schivel tracked a hot pace and took command in the homestretch before succumbing by a nose against the deep-closing Aloha West.
Dr. Schivel will face fellow 3-year-olds in the Malibu and looms among the key contenders in a deep and competitive field.
Flightline
Dr. Schivel would be an obvious favorite to win the Malibu if not for the presence of Flightline. This freakishly talented son of Tapit is undefeated and unchallenged in two starts, winning maiden and allowance sprints by an average margin of 13 lengths.
Sold for $1 million as a yearling, Flightline has turned in a bevy of blazing workouts in preparation for his stakes debut. Hot jockey Flavien Prat will guide the John Sadler trainee, who posted massive speed figures of 114 (Beyer) and 117 (Brisnet) in his most recent victory. If Flightline brings his A-game to the Malibu, he’ll be tough to beat.
Hot Rod Charlie
Across seven starts in 2021, Hot Rod Charlie has been a picture of talent and consistency. Victorious in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2), Hot Rod Charlie exits an excellent fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he launched a challenge at pacesetting winner Knicks Go before flattening out in the final furlong.
With five straight triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Hot Rod Charlie is the horse to beat in Sunday’s sixth race at Santa Anita, the San Antonio (G2, post time 4:40 p.m.). The durable 3-year-old will drop blinkers while retaining the services of Flavien Prat, setting the stage for a short-priced victory in his second run against older rivals.
Going Global
Seven starts, six stakes victories, five graded victories. Going Global has been sensational this year, and the consistent sophomore filly will endeavor to pick up a second Grade 1 win when starting as the favorite in Sunday’s 11th race at Santa Anita, the American Oaks ( G1, post time 7:20 p.m.).
Winner of the Del Mar Oaks (G1) during the summer, Going Global recently conquered an accomplished field of older rivals in the Goldikova (G2). Strong homestretch acceleration is Going Global’s greatest weapon, and if she produces her typical kick while stretching out over 1 1/4 miles, she can end the year on a high note.
Lady Speightspeare
Undefeated Grade 1 winners typically draw a lot of attention, but Lady Speightspeare is an exception. The accomplished filly is flying under the radar and isn’t even the morning line favorite in Sunday’s fifth race at Gulfstream Park, the Tropical Park Oaks (post time 1:54 p.m.).
Underestimating Lady Speightspeare might be a mistake. Winner of the Natalma (G1) racing one mile at Woodbine last year, Lady Speightspeare hasn’t tasted defeat in four starts. She enters off a four-length romp in the Bessarabian (G2) over the Woodbine Tapeta track and shouldn’t encounter much pace in the Tropical Park Oaks, opening the door for a pacesetting victory.
Private Mission
Although Private Mission was last seen finishing 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, it’s hard to view this effort in a negative light. After all, the daughter of Into Mischief got burned up setting blazing fractions of 21.84, 44.97 and 1:09.70 seconds, which prompted deep closers to sweep the top five finishing positions.
Private Mission had previously rattled off three straight victories, including triumphs in the Torrey Pines (G3) and Zenyatta (G2). Cutting back in distance and facing fellow sophomores in Sunday’s eighth race at Santa Anita, the La Brea (G1, post time 5:44 p.m.) should make Private Mission formidable under Flavien Prat.
Rocket Dawg
Although Brad Cox trainees often improve off their debuts, Rocket Dawg looked plenty fast already in his first run at Churchill Downs last month. After settling off the pace in a seven-furlong maiden special weight, Rocket Dawg launched a wide rally to smash next-out winner Grantham by 5 1/2 lengths.
This effort has stamped Rocket Dawg as a key contender in Sunday’s 11th race at Fair Grounds, the Gun Runner (post time 6:06 p.m.). Cox wins at a 29 percent rate with horses running long for the first time, so the 1 1/16-mile distance shouldn’t be an issue for Rocket Dawg, who has the pedigree of a classics type. If he improves in his second run, Rocket Dawg can visit the Gun Runner winners circle and secure 10 qualification points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Tobys Heart
A three-time stakes-winning sprinter, Tobys Heart is the morning line favorite to beat Lady Speightspeare in the Tropical Park Oaks. The question is, can Tobys Heart handle the 1 1/16-mile distance?
Tobys Heart brings an intriguing resume to the table. She’s clearly talented and placed in the Lake George (G3) racing one mile at Saratoga during the summer.
But Tobys Heart is 4-for-4 sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs or less and 0-for-5 racing seven furlongs or farther, so shorter trips might be her true forte. Her talent and consistency should place her in the hunt for a top-three finish on Sunday, but catching Lady Speightspeare may require a perfect setup.
Triple Tap
Although Triple Tap hasn’t been quite as flashy as Flightline, the chestnut colt is likewise unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts. A flashy maiden winner sprinting seven furlongs at Santa Anita last winter, Triple Tap recently returned from an eight-month layoff to win a six-furlong allowance at Del Mar by 2 1/4 lengths.
Triple Tap is versatile in terms of running style, but seems most effective racing off the pace. He capitalized on a destructive pace to rally from seventh place in his allowance win and figures to employ similar tactics in the Malibu.
If a fast pace unfolds, this half-brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah can outrun expectations and vie for an exacta finish—or maybe even victory.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?