Horses to Watch: 9 to keep, 2 to drop as January wraps up
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Favorite Outlaw nearly won his debut on Dec. 31 at Oaklawn, chasing a hot pace before succumbing to finish second by a nose. He made up for that loss on Saturday at Oaklawn, smashing a six-furlong maiden special weight with authority.
Tracking (and then pressing) quick splits of 21.81 and 45.50 seconds proved to be no obstacle for Favorite Outlaw, who was full of run down the homestretch. By sprinting the final two furlongs in 12.49 and 12.69 seconds, the Steve Asmussen trainee drew off to win by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:10.68 seconds.
This dominant victory produced an excellent 95 Beyer speed figure, suggesting Favorite Outlaw has a stakes-caliber future. Since he’s 3 years old, Favorite Outlaw might even be bound for a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race.
Just how talented is Secret Oath? It’s clear the 3-year-old daughter of Arrogate is developing in an exciting direction after smashing the Martha Washington at Oaklawn with ease.
Fresh off an 8 1/4-length allowance win at Oaklawn, Secret Oath was similarly dominant in the Martha Washington, a Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep race awarding 10 qualification points to the winner. After tracking slow fractions of 24.09, 48.58 and 1:14.50 from fourth place, Secret Oath effortlessly seized command and finished fast (running the final sixteenth in 6.38 seconds) to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths.
Secret Oath completed the 1 1/16-mile race in a respectable 1:46.21, and if she keeps progressing on her current trajectory, we might be looking at the Kentucky Oaks winner.
Recent Watch List winners
Shrugged off a long layoff to unleash a determined outside rally and win Gulfstream Park’s Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) for the second straight year. Defeating a deep field (including hot stablemate Never Surprised) by one length has reestablished Colonel Liam as the top U.S. turf horse in training.
This exciting Todd Pletcher trainee brought his record to 2-for-2 with an easy allowance optional claiming victory on Sunday at Tampa Bay Downs. Racing one mile and 40 yards, the son of More Than Ready dashed to the front through slow fractions of 25.03, 49.88 and 1:13.80, then finished fast to draw away and win by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:40.24. It’s safe to assume Emmanuel is bound for the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Put his abundant speed to good use in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita, carving out fractions of 21.86 and 44.49 seconds before staying on to beat a trio of well-regarded Bob Baffert trainees by 2 1/4 lengths. Forbidden Kingdom reached the finish line in a solid 1:22.75 seconds and looks like a star sprinter in the making.
Backed up his impressive Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile romp with a stunning victory in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park. In front by at least two lengths at every call, Life Is Good carved out a fast pace before cruising home to beat Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Knicks Go by 3 1/4 lengths, stopping the clock for 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.91. A huge year could be in the offing for this still-improving 4-year-old.
Talented 3-year-old brought his record to 3-for-3 with a determined victory in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park. After tracking the pace from an outside position, Newgrange wore down the leaders and forged clear late to win by 1 1/2 lengths, completing the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:45.83. Newgrange isn’t the flashiest colt, but he knows how to win and warrants respect this winter.
Carved out a solid pace in the Fred W. Hooper (G3) at Gulfstream Park before turning back all challengers to score by 1 1/4 lengths. Runner-up Fearless (a two-time graded stakes winner) pulled 9 1/4 lengths clear of the rest, so it’s safe to say Speaker’s Corner is finally living up to the abundant potential he has shown against easier competition.
Worth another try
Came home fourth in Gulfstream’s Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G3), but she was beaten only by a neck and a head for second place in her first start off an eight-month layoff. The competition was strong (victorious Regal Glory had previously won the Matriarch [G1]), so I’m optimistic this is a comeback effort Gift List can build on.
Off the Watch List
Cezanne
Failed to fire his best shot while returning from a long layoff in Santa Anita’s Palos Verdes (G3), rallying only mildly to finish third by three lengths in a small field. Cezanne is bred to run long and still has upside for improvement as the year goes on, but he was favored at 7-10 to win the Palos Verdes, so I was hoping to see a stronger effort.
Doppelganger
Started as the 9-10 favorite in the San Vicente but failed to rally as expected while settling for fourth place by 2 3/4 lengths. I’ll want to see a sharper showing next time before returning Doppelganger to my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.