Horses to Watch: 9 stakes horses on the list kick off July

Upcoming entries

Hibernacle

Hibernacle was tons the best in her debut sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland back in April, recovering from a bump at the start to dominate by 7 1/2 lengths. The daughter of Hootenanny is bred to excel from an early age and looms as a logical win threat in Sunday’s third race at Ellis Park, the Debutante (post time 1:43 p.m. EDT). The presence of hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 28 percent winner at Ellis this year) adds to the appeal.

Moira

Last year’s record-setting Queen’s Plate winner started 2023 on an encouraging note, rallying against a pedestrian pace to finish second by a neck in the Belle Mahone (G3) over the Tapeta track at Woodbine. Moira is switching to turf for Saturday’s 10th race at Woodbine, the Nassau (G2, post time 6:05 p.m.) and should handle the change just fine, considering she crossed the wire second by a neck in the E.P. Taylor (G1) over this course last year.

New York Thunder

New York Thunder has never run on dirt, but he’s 3-for-3 on turf and synthetic, most recently smashing Woodbine’s six-furlong Woodstock by 7 1/2 lengths. He’s clearly talented and can’t be dismissed from win consideration while trying dirt in Sunday’s eighth race at Ellis Park, the Maxfield (post time 4:22 p.m.).

Saudi Crown

Two starts, two victories. Saudi Crown looks like a star in the making for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming trounced a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, then wired a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. I’m excited to see him step up in class and distance for Saturday’s sixth race at Belmont Park, the one-mile Dwyer (G3, post time 3:41 p.m.).

Smile Happy

Smile Happy has shown flashes of serious talent throughout his career, but never more than when he beat a strong field by two lengths in the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs last month. The 4-year-old son of Runhappy will seek to keep his momentum going in Saturday’s 10th race at Ellis Park, the Stephen Foster (G1, post time 5:26 p.m.), which represents an opportunity to secure a career-defining Grade 1 win.

Squire Creek

After wiring his first two starts, Squire Creek proved no match for Drew’s Gold in the Gold Fever at Belmont, finishing a distant second. But Drew’s Gold came back to finish second in a fast renewal of the Woody Stephens (G1), so form lines suggest Squire Creek is a win threat while sticking to the ungraded stakes ranks for the Maxfield.

The Wine Steward

The Wine Steward left no doubt about his superiority in a five-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds at Belmont Park last month, tracking the early pace before romping home on top by six lengths. The stoutly bred son of Vino Rosso is facing tougher competition in Sunday’s fifth race at Ellis Park, the Bashford Manor (post time 2:45 p.m.), but he figures to appreciate stretching out over six furlongs and can’t be dismissed from win consideration.

V V’s Dream

Hibernacle isn’t the only flashy debut winner entered in the Debutante. The morning line favorite is V V’s Dream, who overcame a slow start to obliterate a five-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month by 6 1/4 lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t typically crank his juveniles to win on debut, so the fact V V’s Dream dominated her first start is a sign of significant talent.

West Will Power

Although West Will Power was beaten to third place by Smile Happy in the Alysheba last time out, he has a chance to turn the tables in the Stephen Foster. Two starts back, West Will Power trounced the New Orleans Classic (G2) at Fair Grounds by 4 3/4 lengths, earning a powerful 111 Brisnet Speed rating. A return to that level of form would make West Will Power formidable.

Off the watch list

Two Phil’s

The 2023 Kentucky Derby runner-up suffered an ankle injury when winning the Ohio Derby (G3) last Saturday and has unfortunately been retired. Here’s hoping that he recovers quickly and enjoys a successful stud career.

Which horses do you have your eyes on?

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.