Horses to Watch: 8 to follow in entries for Pegasus weekend

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Results

Monday

Fair Grounds, race 7. Admiral Dennis bounced back from his disappointing fourth in the Gun Runner to win a 1 1/16-mile, $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds in determined fashion.

Admiral Dennis was content to rate in midfield behind slow fractions of 25.14 and 50.58 seconds before advancing to challenge through six furlongs in 1:15.21. The Brad Cox trainee then took over the lead and held off a charge from stretch-running Vamos Carlitos to prevail by three-quarters of a length in 1:46.49, becoming the latest winner from my watch list.

Thursday

Oaklawn, race 9. Booth is off my watch list after tiring to finish fifth by 8 3/4 lengths in the Byerley Turk, which marked his second straight defeat.

Entries

Saturday

Oaklawn, race 4. Second in the 2023 Peter Pan (G3) and Ohio Derby (G3) while facing future Belmont winner Arcangelo and Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil’s, Bishops Bay is gradually working his way back to peak form after a 16 1/2-month layoff.

Bishops Bay made his return Nov. 11 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, winning a $50,000 allowance optional claimer by two lengths. He then set a fast pace in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn before settling for second place by a head.

Bishops Bay will stick to the $62,500 allowance optional claiming level for a 1 1/16-mile contest Saturday at Oaklawn. He’s favored at 8-5 on the morning line and has a strong chance to shine, particularly if he’s allowed to set or stalk a more relaxed pace.

Oaklawn, race 6. Kinetic put up a game fight against Grade 1 winner Saudi Crown in the 1 1/16-mile Tenacious at Fair Grounds last month, chasing the favorite down the homestretch to finish second by two lengths.

Saudi Crown ranks among the key contenders in Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park, so Kinetic has to be ranked as the horse to beat while facing an easier field in the 1 1/8-mile General MacArthur at Oaklawn. Kinetic is 3-for-4 racing around two turns and dominated a 1 1/8-mile, $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last fall, so this Godolphin homebred is perfectly spotted to secure his first stakes win.

Gulfstream Park, race 11. Nic’s Style boasts a 5-for-6 career record, with her lone defeat coming when second to Grade 1 winner Ways and Means in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Nic’s Style has won two ungraded stakes since then by comfortable margins.

Nic’s Style is returning to the graded-stakes ranks for the seven-furlong Inside Information (G2). A competitive field has turned out, but Nic’s Style might be talented enough to win. Keep in mind, two of her most impressive victories have come at Gulfstream Park.

Oaklawn, race 10. Three watch-list members are scheduled to start in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3), a road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier carrying a lucrative $1 million purse. I think there’s a good chance my three will sweep the trifecta.

Gaming is the slim morning-line favorite after finishing first in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). His form slipped a little in the Los Alamitos Futurity, raising the question of whether 1 1/16 miles is farther than he truly wants to run. But Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Southwest a record six times, so Gaming must be respected while making the journey to Arkansas from California.

Patch Adams has a strong chance to visit the winner’s circle if he runs as well as he did in a Nov. 30 maiden special weight sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. The son of perennial leading North American sire Into Mischief won by 10 1/2 lengths in the strong time of 1:20.77 seconds, only 0.33 seconds off the track record set by two-time Breeders’ Cup winner Groupie Doll.

Sandman placed third in the Street Sense (G3) last fall then ended his juvenile season with a victory in a one-mile, $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn. The son of Tapit ran his final furlong in an excellent 11.98 seconds to beat eight rivals by 1 3/4 lengths, a performance suggesting he’s progressing in the right direction for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.

Gulfstream Park, race 13. Winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and third in that year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Locked missed most of his 3-year-old season because of an injury. But he returned better than ever in the final quarter of the year, dominating a $62,500 allowance optional claimer by 7 1/2 lengths before conquering older rivals by 1 1/2 lengths in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G2).

Locked’s Cigar Mile triumph came at the expense of a strong field, including Breeders’ Cup Sprint third-place finisher Mullikin and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile runner-up Post Time. The performance stamped Locked as the 5-2 morning-line favorite to add the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) to his record, and I believe there’s a strong chance he’ll get the job done. Stretching out over 1 1/8 miles shouldn’t bother the son of Gun Runner, and the possibility of a modest pace might allow Locked to secure a favorable trip closer to the pace than usual.

Sunday

Oaklawn, race 9. Handsome Pants won his debut for trainer Kenny McPeek then ran below expectations in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) three weeks later, finishing eighth by a wide margin.

Handsome Pants subsequently spent 2 1/2 months on the sidelines before returning to serious training in December. Five timed workouts, including two at five furlongs, have prepped Handsome Pants for a comeback run in a 1 1/16-mile $200,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn. He’s the 9-5 morning-line favorite to conquer 10 rivals and certainly can challenge for victory if he rebounds to the form of his maiden win.

2025 watch list record

In 2025, horses on my watch list have a 15: 5-3-3 record for a 33 percent win rate and a 73 percent in-the-money rate.

Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.