Horses to Watch: 6 to keep and 5 to drop
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Winchell Thoroughbreds and trainer Steve Asmussen have enjoyed strong success through the years, with 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner among their best horses. Now they’ve teamed up with Epicenter, who joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a decisive victory in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds.
Epicenter left no doubt about his superiority in the 1 1/16-mile event. After pressing fractions of 24.41, 47.76 and 1:12.57, Epicenter seized command and pulled away with authority to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:44.19 seconds was solid, and he’s now 2-for-2 since stretching out over route distances, stamping the son of Not This Time as an exciting Derby prospect.
Sold for $1.1 million as a 2-year-old in training, Shaaz required a lot of time to reach the races. The Bob Baffert trainee finally debuted as a late 3-year-old on Sunday at Santa Anita, starting as the 1-2 favorite in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. And he certainly delivered on his expectations.
With Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez in the saddle, Shaaz was unhurried early on, settling in fifth place while stablemate Hopkins carved out quick fractions of 21.99 and 45.01 seconds. But Shaaz found another gear down the homestretch, rallying boldly to get up and win by half a length in 1:16.11, an excellent clocking over a slow track.
As a son of Uncle Mo out of a Mineshaft mare, Shaaz is bred top and bottom to thrive running long. He looks like a potential graded-stakes star in the making.
Recent Watch List winner
Sensational sophomore absolutely ran out of his skin in the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita, carving out fast fractions of 22.01 and 44.48 seconds over a slow track before powering clear down the homestretch. Under a light hand ride from jockey Flavien Prat, Flightline drew away with ease to smash his pursuers by 11 1/2 lengths in a blazing 1:21.37 seconds for seven furlongs, which translated to massive speed figures of 118 (Beyer) and 114 (Brisnet).
Flightline is now unbeaten and unchallenged in three starts, winning them all by a combined 37 1/2 lengths. We can only hope Flightline stays sound, because on raw talent he might be as good as or better than any horse we’ve seen in years.
Worth another try
Ran a winning race against a quality field in the San Antonio at Santa Anita (G2), but got caught at the wire to finish second by a nose against the multiple Grade 1-placed Express Train. Hot Rod Charlie raced closer to a solid pace over a slow track than the winner, so I’ll view Hot Rod Charlie’s performance in a positive light.
Although Going Global was beaten to sixth place in the American Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita, I’ll draw a line through this effort because the race was transferred from turf to dirt. Going Global is bred for grass and has won half a dozen stakes over the lawn, so her no-show on dirt can’t be held against her.
Technically, Tobys Heart beat only one horse when finishing eighth in the Tropical Park Oaks at Gulfstream Park. But the stretch-running filly didn’t run badly by any means, racing closer to the pace than usual and challenging around the far turn before weakening in the final furlong to finish 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner.
Tobys Heart is 4-for-4 sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs or less and 0-for-6 running seven furlongs or farther, so cutting back in distance might be all she needs to rebound.
Off the Watch List
Dr. Schivel
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up never really fired in the Malibu, racing off the pace before fading steadily to finish last by 19 1/2 lengths. Perhaps he regressed at the end of a busy season, or perhaps he had a different excuse. But I’ll wait through another start before playing him again.
Lady Speightspeare
The previously undefeated Grade 1 winner had every chance to win the Tropical Park Oaks, but she weakened in the drive to finish third by three-quarters of a length. It wasn’t a bad effort, but Lady Speightspeare raced greenly at times and needs to bounce back next time.
Private Mission
He ran into early trouble when favored at 3-5 in Santa Anita’s La Brea (G1) but never really fired while finishing sixth by 7 1/2 lengths. I’ll want to see a sharper effort from Private Mission before returning her to my watch list.
Rocket Dawg
Raced rankly in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds before unexpectedly fading to finish sixth by 23 3/4 lengths as the 4-5 favorite. Rocket Dawg clearly ran below form compared with his impressive debut victory at Churchill Downs, so I’ll want to see how he comes out of the Gun Runner before playing him again.
Triple Tap
Received a pretty solid pace to chase in the Malibu but failed to capitalize while rallying only mildly to finish a distant fourth in his graded stakes debut. This half-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah needs improvement if he’s going to emulate his speedy sibling as a Grade 1 star.