Horses to Watch: 6 are entered on New Year’s weekend
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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It’s been a while since two-time Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) winner Colonel Liam last saw action. The talented 5-year-old hasn’t run since finishing ninth in the Mar. 26 Dubai Turf (G1) against international competition at Meydan.
But long layoffs have never bothered Colonel Liam before, and he looms as the favorite to win Saturday’s ninth race at Gulfstream Park, the Ft. Lauderdale (G2, post time 4:10 p.m. EST). Colonel Liam won the 2022 Pegasus World Cup Turf off an eight-month layoff, and he enters the Ft. Lauderdale off an eye-catching series of workouts, suggesting he’ll be tough to beat while dropping in class for hot trainer Todd Pletcher.
Justique
One of the most impressive 2-year-old fillies to race in 2022 was Justique. A powerful last-to-first debut winner during the summer at Del Mar, Justique overcame some missed training time to finish third in the Chandelier (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, then unleashed an effortless rally to dominate the seven-furlong Desi Arnaz by 2 1/4 lengths.
Justique will make her 3-year-old debut in Sunday’s seventh race at Santa Anita, the Santa Ynez (G3, post time 6:00 p.m.), a seven-furlong Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier. The daughter of Justify has already beaten three of her six rivals and should be tough to deny while sticking to the same distance as the Desi Arnaz, especially if she can overcome her tendency to break slowly.
New York Thunder
New York Thunder ran out of his skin when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track last month. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist set fast fractions of 21.49 and 44.06 seconds before dashing the final furlong in 11.71 seconds to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths in 55.77 seconds, just 0.37 seconds off the track record.
We’ll see if New York Thunder can keep his momentum going while switching to turf for Friday’s fifth race at Gulfstream Park, a $75,000 allowance optional claimer (post time 2:10 p.m.). The surface switch is a question mark, but the five-furlong distance should be right up New York Thunder’s alley. I’m optimistic he’ll deliver another flashy performance.
Speed Boat Beach
With the exception of a misfire in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Speed Boat Beach has been unstoppable. He won his debut in track-record time over the Del Mar dirt but has since carved out a reputation on turf, employing pace-pressing tactics to win the five-furlong Speakeasy and one-mile Cecil B. DeMille (G3).
Speed Boat Beach will attempt to keep his momentum going in Friday’s third race at Santa Anita, the Eddie Logan (post time 3:59 p.m.). He has to reckon with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf third-place finisher Nagirroc, but Speed Boat Beach’s abundant speed should set the stage for a strong showing.
Victory Formation
Two victories from two starts. Victory Formation was flashy in his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, beating next-out winner Release McCraken by 4 3/4 lengths, and he followed up with a gritty neck triumph in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer dashing six furlongs at Churchill Downs.
As a son of Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit out of a mare by stamina influence Smart Strike, Victory Formation is bred to thrive running long. I’m excited to see him stretch out over one mile in Sunday’s eighth race at Oaklawn, the Smarty Jones (post time 5:10 p.m.). The added distance should make Victory Formation tough to beat for hot trainer Brad Cox.
Visitant
With seven victories, one second and one third from nine starts at Turfway Park, it’s clear Visitant loves the Tapeta track at Kentucky’s winter racing oval. In Turfway sprints specifically he’s gone five-for-five, highlighted by fast victories in the Forego and Big Daddy last winter.
Visitant recently returned from a layoff to dominant a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Turfway by 3 1/4 lengths, stamping the William Morey trainee as the horse to beat in Sunday’s ninth race at Turfway, the Holiday Cheer (post time 4:45 p.m.). The six-furlong distance is perfect for Visitant, and I’m expecting another impressive victory.
Which horses do you have your eyes on?