Horses to Watch: 5 to follow, including a Rebel contender
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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First Captain looked like a star in the making last spring and summer, opening his career with three straight victories for trainer Shug McGaughey. The highlight was a comfortable 1 3/4-length score in the Dwyer (G3) racing one mile at Belmont Park.
First Captain hasn’t run since finishing third in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin at Saratoga, but the son of Curlin is bred top and bottom to improve with maturity and thrive running long. That’s why I’m excited to see First Captain return to action in Sunday’s 10th race at Gulfstream Park, a $75,000 allowance optional claimer (post time 5:14 p.m.).
The seven-furlong distance is surely shorter than First Captain’s best, and I don’t expect him to fire a peak effort off the layoff. But this looks like a nice spot for First Captain to kick off the season before building to bigger and better things down the road.
Mandaloun
As a 3-year-old in 2021, Mandaloun was surrounded by controversies through no fault of his own. He won the Haskell (G1) via the disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie, and he’s now being recognized as the winner of the Kentucky Derby via disqualification of Medina Spirit, though Equibase results for the latter race have yet to be updated.
Mandaloun will have a chance to win a major prize outright in Saturday’s eighth race at Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, the 1,800-meter Saudi Cup (G1, post time 12:35 p.m. EST). A deep field has assembled for the world’s richest Thoroughbred horse race, which carries an epic purse of $20 million. But Mandaloun looks formidable in his second run of the season.
After all, Mandaloun kicked off the year with a strong victory in the Louisiana (G3) racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. A slow early/fast late race shape could have compromised Mandaloun’s chances, but the son of Into Mischief shrugged off this obstacle to rally from a couple lengths behind and beat 2021 Preakness runner-up Midnight Bourbon by three-quarters of a length.
Mandaloun finished fast down the homestretch of the Louisiana (running the final five-sixteenths of a mile in about 30.2 seconds), and if he improves at all with a better pace setup in the Saudi Cup, he’ll have every chance to vie for victory.
Newgrange
Three starts, three victories. So far, no one has figured out how to defeat Newgrange, who counts victories in the Sham (G3) and Southwest (G3) on his resume. Part of Newgrange’s success can be attributed to his versatility; he’s won with a variety of running styles, including pacesetting tactics.
It’s easy to see why Newgrange is a clear favorite to win Saturday’s 11th race at Oaklawn, the $1 million Rebel (G2, post time 6:22 p.m.). He’s the fastest entrant in terms of Beyer and Brisnet speed figures, and his victory in the Southwest came over the same track and distance as the Rebel. After enduring a wide trip in the Southwest, Newgrange will break from post 2 in the Rebel, setting the stage for a ground-saving trip and a fourth consecutive victory.
Secret Oath
It’s hard to believe how impressively Secret Oath has come to hand at Oaklawn this winter. First, the daughter of champion Arrogate smashed a one-mile allowance, sweeping from seven lengths off the pace to dominate by 8 1/4 lengths. Then she stepped up in class for the 1 1/16-mile Martha Washington and again launched a powerful rally to trounce her foes by 7 1/4 lengths.
These efforts have stamped Secret Oath as a heavy favorite to win Saturday’s fifth race at Oaklawn, the Honeybee (G3, post time 3:10 p.m.). She’ll face a small field with a fair amount of speed, so Secret Oath should receive a favorable setup for her stretch-running style. I’m expecting Secret Oath to win right back, and the way she’s developing, the Kentucky Oaks looms as a logical goal.
Shaaz
Technically speaking, $1.1 million auction acquisition Shaaz is undefeated in two starts. He needed the help of the stewards to win a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita earlier this month via disqualification, but the son of Uncle Mo is still a work in progress with lots of upside for improvement.
Shaaz will have every chance to score an outright allowance victory in Sunday’s seventh race at Santa Anita, an $80,000 allowance optional claimer (post time 6:30 p.m.). He’s facing only four rivals while running back on three weeks of rest, so I’m optimistic Shaaz will produce a sharper performance, conquer this small field and continue his forward progression.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?