Horses to Watch: 4 turf stars and 2 dirt runners
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Elector failed to challenge in his Dec. 26 debut at Santa Anita, stumbling at the start and racing greenly on his way to a last-place finish behind the currently undefeated Shaaz. But Elector is quickly making up for lost time.
On Feb. 26, Elector broke his maiden dashing seven furlongs at Santa Anita, pressing the early pace before drawing off to win by 4 3/4 lengths. He was just as strong in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Santa Anita, carving out quick fractions of 22.31 and 44.95 seconds before staying on to win by 1 1/2 lengths in a snappy 1:15.91 seconds.
A 4-year-old son of Constitution trained by John Sadler, Elector is rapidly progressing in a positive direction. He has the pedigree to stretch out over longer trips, so I’m excited to see what Elector’s future holds.
Formerly based in Europe, Ocean Road made her U.S. debut in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, finishing sixth against a remarkably deep field. Subsequently transferred to the barn of Brendan Walsh, Ocean Road kicked off her 2022 campaign in a 1 1/8-mile turf allowance on Friday at Keeneland, and it’s safe to say the result was impressive.
Favored at 13-10 to beat seven rivals, Ocean Road was content to race at the back of the pack early on, trailing the leaders by about five lengths through pedestrian fractions of 24.83 seconds, 50.48 and 1:15.81. But once Ocean Road got going, she was absolutely full of run, sprinting the final furlong in 10.97 seconds (per Trakus) to gain 3 1/2 lengths and prevail by a nose.
Ocean Road’s brilliant turn of foot is a sign of significant talent. The 4-year-old daughter of Australia appears ready to win at the stakes level this year, and it would come as no surprise to see her develop into a Grade 1 winner.
Recent Watch List winners
The champion male sprinter of 2021 ended an injury-induced layoff with a comfortable victory in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) Handicap dashing six furlongs at Oaklawn.
Favored at 1-2 in his first start since undergoing surgery for a knee chip, Jackie’s Warrior displayed his customary early speed in the Count Fleet, carving out bold fractions of 21.61 and 44.51 seconds on the front end. He kicked away to a four-length lead passing the eighth pole, and while long shot Letsgetlucky rallied to make the finish close, Jackie’s Warrior wasn’t asked for his best until late in the race and held on to win by three-quarters of a length in a solid 1:09.09.
With this encouraging comeback run under his belt, Jackie’s Warrior appears poised for another big year. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland surely looms as a long-term goal.
Is Shirl’s Speight a budding superstar miler? He certainly looked like one in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland. After rating in seventh place behind slow fractions of 24.95, 49.63 and 1:13.38, Shirl’s Speight unleashed a sensational turn of foot down the homestretch, sprinting the final two furlongs in 10.94 and 11.14 seconds (per Trakus) to get up and win by a nose over former European campaigner Masen and 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up Smooth Like Strait.
Considering Smooth Like Strait and Masen ran 1-2 through the slow early fractions, Shirl’s Speight’s tremendous effort to run them down can’t be overstated. We’re still early in the year, but Shirl’s Speight might be good enough to return to Keeneland and win the Breeders’ Cup Mile this fall.
Worth another try
The Grade 1 winner kicked off her 4-year-old season on a promising note in Keeneland’s Jenny Wiley (G1). After saving ground behind the leaders through modest splits of 24.41, 48.14 and 1:11.85, Shantisara couldn’t quite outkick stablemate and fellow Grade 1 winner Regal Glory down the lane, settling for second place.
But Shantisara was beaten by only one length while gaining a length on Regal Glory through a fast final 5/16 of a mile in 29.12 seconds. Shantisara won running as far as 1 3/8 miles last year, so she’s eligible to challenge against top company over a wide variety of distances in 2022.
Upcoming entries
The delicate Greyes Creek has run only 10 times since August 2018 in a career dotted with long layoffs. The gray 6-year-old most recently finished eighth with a significantly traffic-filled trip in the Grade Jaipur (G1) last June at Belmont Park.
Greyes Creek will aim to get back on track in Wednesday’s seventh race at Keeneland, a 1 1/16-mile turf allowance (post time 4:12 p.m. EDT). It’s hard to know what to expect off the 10 1/2-month layoff, but Greyes Creek at his best is a classy turf miler with a powerful turn of foot, so I’m looking forward to seeing if he shows his old spark.
Off the Watch List
Set Piece
Failed to fire off a layoff in the Maker’s Mark Mile, launching only a mild rally before fading to finish seventh. He was beaten only two lengths in a tight pack, but this marked the second straight off-the-board effort from Set Piece, so I’ll want to see him bounce back before playing him again.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.