Horses to Watch: 4 to follow in the weekend's action
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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Two starts, two blowout victories. Always Carina looks like a star in the making for trainer Chad Brown, a reputation she can reiterate in Saturday’s eighth race at Belmont Park, the Mother Goose (G2, post time 4:40 p.m. EDT).
Stepping up into graded stakes company for the first time is a question mark, but Always Carina likely has the raw talent to handle the challenge. After trouncing her sprint debut at Aqueduct (beating a pair of next-out winners by four lengths), Always Carina led all the way to obliterate a one-mile allowance at Belmont by 9 3/4 lengths.
Always Carina looms as the lone front-runner in the Mother Goose field, so if she shakes loose on an uncontested lead, reeling her in may prove impossible.
Ethical Judgement
Never out of the exacta in four starts against maiden and allowance company, Ethical Judgement has been making slow but steady progress for trainer Brendan Walsh. After finishing second in his 2021 debut (beaten only by future graded stakes winner Fulsome), Ethical Judgement wired a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs, scoring by 3 1/2 lengths over a sloppy track.
Ethical Judgement will try his hand against graded stakes company in Saturday’s ninth race at Thistledown, the Ohio Derby (G2, post time 5:04 p.m. ET). The jump in class is question mark, but as a son of champion Honor Code out of a mare by Smart Strike, Ethical Judgement has the pedigree to improve with maturity. I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet, and a top-three finish in the Ohio Derby isn’t out of the question.
Lovestruck
A Godolphin homebred conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, Lovestruck showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. The daughter of Tapit went 2-for-2 racing 1 1/16 miles on turf, rallying strongly to win her debut at Saratoga before overcoming a slow pace to win Aqueduct’s Tepin by a length.
A sibling to three stakes winners, including Florida Derby (G1) winner and successful sire Scat Daddy, Lovestruck will kick off her sophomore season in Saturday’s ninth race at Belmont Park, the Wild Applause (post time 5:12 p.m. ET). She hasn’t run since November, so the long layoff is a question mark. But she fits well on ability, so I’m excited to see how Lovestuck performs in her return to action.
Tobys Heart
We know Tobys Heart has talent, but can she effectively race one mile? We’ll get a better idea when the stretch-running sophomore starts in Saturday’s 12th race at Churchill Downs, the Tepin (post time 6:27 p.m. ET).
Tobys Heart boasts a 3-for-3 record sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs, including sharp victories in the Limestone Turf Sprint Stakes and Bolton Landing Stakes. But her efforts running long have been less inspiring; she finished sixth in the 1 1/16-mile Herecomesthebride (G3) and fifth in the seven-furlong Soaring Softly (G3).
On the bright side, Tobys Heart gained ground steadily down the Soaring Softly homestretch and was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths for victory, so if she gets a fair pace to chase while facing 12 rivals in the Tepin, perhaps she can outrun expectations and deliver her first non-sprint victory.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?