Horses to Watch: 3 new names plus 8 to keep
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Growl Tiger showed flashes of potential as a 4-year-old in 2021 but went to the sidelines after a fourth-place finish in a deep allowance sprint on April 9 at Keeneland. Whether Growl Tiger suffered an in-race setback is unclear, but he was beaten by only 2 1/2 lengths by the graded stakes-placed Answer In and future Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Aloha West.
Growl Tiger finally returned to action in a $16,000 allowance optional claimer, sprinting seven furlongs on Friday at Tampa Bay Downs, and the result was a blowout victory. After pressing an opening quarter-mile in 22.18 seconds, Growl Tiger took command through half a mile in 44.70 seconds, extended his advantage through six furlongs in a blazing 1:08.96, and crossed the wire clear by 8 1/4 lengths in 1:21.61.
Only time will tell what the future holds for this speedy 5-year-old gelding, but don’t be surprised if Growl Tiger wins a stakes before the year is over.
Four starts, four victories, three stakes wins. Kathleen O. has been a picture of talent and consistency for trainer Shug McGaughey, and she reiterated her credentials as a serious Kentucky Oaks contender when cruising to an impressive victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Kathleen O. wasn’t in any hurry to get going, trailing a six-horse field through early fractions of 24.17 and 48.27 seconds. But she unleashed a big rally around the far turn to challenge Rachel Alexandra (G2) runner-up Goddess of Fire for supremacy, and down the homestretch Kathleen O. forged away to win by 2 3/4 lengths.
Kathleen O. finished strongly to complete the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:43.75. She just keeps getting better and figures to be formidable five weeks from now at Churchill Downs.
You have to admire the performance Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Simplification produced in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. After dueling with Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner Classic Causeway and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Pappacap through fractions of 23.67, 47.24 and 1:10.68, Simplification battled on gamely to finish third, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths by a pair of horses closing from farther back.
The Gulfstream main track wasn’t playing very fast on Saturday; for comparison, the other two dirt routes on the card produced six-furlong splits of 1:12.50 and 1:12.54. The 1:10.68-second clocking in the Florida Derby was intense by comparison, to the extent that Classic Causeway gave way to finish last. Considering Simplification won the Fountain of Youth with an off-the-pace rally, his gallant effort with a change in tactics in the Florida Derby is worthy of applause. Simplification could be a viable Kentucky Derby long shot off this performance.
Recent Watch List winners
This talented turf mare ran a huge race off a long layoff in the 1 1/16-mile Sand Springs at Gulfstream Park. After dropping back to seventh place, Crystal Cliffs unleashed a powerful burst of acceleration around the far turn and down the homestretch, sprinting the final 5/16 of a mile in about 29.8 seconds to surge past the leaders and dominate by 2 3/4 lengths. If Crystal Cliffs can stay sound this season, she’ll win her fair share of stakes.
This $1.1 million auction acquisition brought his record to 3-for-3 with an impressive victory in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Santa Anita. Sprinting to the lead under jockey Mike Smith, Shaaz carved out fractions of 22.81, 46.57 and 1:10.70 before pulling away under a hand ride to win the one-mile heat by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:37.02. The son of Uncle Mo looks bound for stakes company.
This winning machine picked up his fourth career stakes score when surging to victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park. After rating in mid-field, Tiz the Bomb had little trouble rallying clear to beat a competitive field by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:48.60 for 1 1/8 miles. Tiz the Bomb is equally effective on turf and Tapeta, but he also has won on dirt and could be an intriguing Kentucky Derby long shot if trainer Kenny McPeek opts to pursue the first Saturday in May.
Worth another try
A stakes winner on turf and Tapeta, Bubble Rock couldn’t quite complete a hat trick in the Fantasy (G3) on dirt at Oaklawn Park, finishing third by 3 1/4 lengths after tracking the early tempo. But the competition was strong, and Bubble Rock finished ahead of Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep race winners Dream Lith and Magic Circle, so we won’t judge this defeat too harshly. We’ll see how Bubble Rock fares when returning to turf or synthetic in the future.
The promising Todd Pletcher trainee might have been the best horse in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, but he hit the gate at the start, failed to gain an ideal early position, appeared hesitant when racing behind rivals and drifted in repeatedly while rallying down the homestretch. Immaturity arguably got the better of Charge It, but he was nevertheless beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Holy Bull (G3) winner White Abarrio. Once Charge It figures out what the racing game is all about, I think he’ll be a formidable player in the 3-year-old division.
This accomplished dirt filly failed to fire when returning from a lengthy layoff in the Bourbonette Oaks on Tapeta at Turfway Park, racing off the pace throughout to finish seventh. Sandstone was an impressive winner of the Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs last fall, trouncing recent Fantasy (G3) winner Yuugiri, so we’ll give Sandstone a chance to bounce back when returning to her preferred surface.
It’s hard to knock the performance Secret Oath produced under challenging circumstances in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. Making her first start against males, the 3-year-old filly broke half a step slowly and got squeezed between rivals early on, forcing her to race well off the pace. She gained ground when the field bunched up but appeared to lack sufficient racing room until shifting outside for a sweeping bid on the far turn. Secret Oath’s swift burst of speed carried her all the way to second place, but she understandably flattened out down the lane and settled for third place by 3 1/2 lengths. This was a deceptively strong performance, and I’m excited to see what the future holds for Secret Oath.
Although Visitant suffered a rare Turfway Park defeat when second in the 1 1/8-mile TwinSpires Kentucky Cup Classic, he didn’t run a bad race by any means, sprinting the final three furlongs in about 36.1 seconds to fall less than a length short of catching a gate-to-wire winner. Visitant is arguably better sprinting than running long, so a cutback in distance might be all he needs to rebound.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.