Horses to Watch: 2 new names, 2 winners, 2 to drop
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
It’s safe to say Matareya was much the best in a six-furlong allowance on Saturday at Fair Grounds. After dashing to the lead through splits of 22.14 and 45.25 seconds, the Godolphin homebred sprinted the final two furlongs in 11.50 and 12.23 seconds to roar away and win by 5 1/4 lengths.
Matareya stopped the clock in a rapid 1:08.98 to secure her second victory from five starts. It’s not the flashiest record at first glance, but Matareya previously finished second in a one-mile Oaklawn allowance against Secret Oath (see below) and second in the Fern Creek at Churchill Downs behind three-time stakes winner Marissa’s Lady, so the caliber of competition Matareya has faced is impressive.
Matareya’s best efforts so far have come in sprints, but the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is bred top and bottom to thrive running long, so trainer Brad Cox should have plenty of options for campaigning Matareya this season. She’s still improving and looks like a promising prospect.
As a 2-year-old in 2020, Reinvestment Risk showed plenty of promise, placing second in the Grade 1 Hopeful and Champagne (G1). But he struggled as a sophomore, with a third-place finish in a June 3 allowance at Belmont Park ranking as his lone start of 2021.
The good news is, Reinvestment Risk returned to his best in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. After tracking modest fractions of 23.02 and 46.08 seconds, Reinvestment Risk accelerated impressively (running the third quarter-mile in 23.68 seconds and the final sixteenth of a mile in 5.97 seconds) to win by three lengths in a snappy 1:15.73 seconds.
This impressive victory hints a return to stakes company is in Reinvestment Risk’s future. Don’t be surprised if this Chad Brown trainee wins a Grade 1 before the year is over.
Recent Watch List winners
Talk about an encouraging comeback effort. Handicappers surely would have forgiven First Captain if he’d fallen to defeat in a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer on Sunday at Gulfstream Park; after all, the stoutly bred son of Curlin was returning from a layoff and negotiating a distance surely shorter than his best.
But First Captain shrugged off these obstacles with aplomb. After trailing a small field through splits of 22.71 and 45.24 seconds, First Captain unleashed a furious finish (sprinting the final three furlongs in about 36.4 seconds) to get up and beat pacesetting Doc Amster by a head.
First Captain reached the finish line in a solid 1:22.19 while Doc Amster pulled three lengths clear of the rest. This was a perfect start to the season for First Captain, who appears poised for a strong 4-year-old campaign.
This talented filly recorded her third straight blowout victory at Oaklawn, smashing the Honeybee (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks by 7 1/2 lengths.
Secret Oath’s triumph was even more impressive than the margin of victory implies. She was full of run throughout while racing behind rivals, and she might have seized command earlier (and won by more) if she hadn’t run up behind rivals and steadied on the far turn. In the end, Secret Oath boldly slipped through on the rail to take command, and her final time for 1 1/16 miles (1:44.74) was significantly faster than the 1:45.69 seconds posted by colts in the Rebel (G2) later on the card.
The takeaway? Secret Oath remains a serious Kentucky Oaks contender, and there’s even talk about running her against males in Oaklawn’s Arkansas Derby (G1). The future sounds exciting.
Off the Watch List
Failed to fire his best shot in the $20 million, Saudi Cup (G1), fading from a pace-tracking position to finish ninth by 18 3/4 lengths. I’ll wait and see how Mandaloun bounces back from the trip to Saudi Arabia before returning him to my watch list.
We had a nice run with Newgrange, who won the Sham (G3) and Southwest (G3) while part of the watch list. But Newgrange ran below expectations as the 4-5 favorite in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn, tracking a modest pace before giving way to finish sixth. I’ll watch his next race before playing him again.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.