Horses to Watch: 2 turf stars and Cox’s exciting juvenile
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
As a son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper out of Regret (G3) winner Beyond Blame, Loggins is bred top and bottom to improve with maturity and thrive running long. So the fact this 2-year-old colt obliterated his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Saturday at Churchill Downs is a testament to his talent and potential.
An odds-on favorite against 10 rivals in a maiden special weight, Loggins tracked an opening quarter-mile in 22.91 seconds, advanced to vie for command through half a mile in 45.80 seconds, and then drove clear to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths in the snappy time of 1:15.87. This Brad Cox trainee looks like a stakes star in the making.
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner emerged as the possible favorite for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile when he strolled to a blowout victory in the Woodbine Mile (G1) at Woodbine.
Modern Games was breathtaking in Saturday’s one-mile turf test. After saving ground off the pace behind quick fractions of 23.08 seconds, 45.79 and 1:09.39, Modern Games shifted to the far outside and swallowed his rivals with an explosive turn-of-foot, drawing off to dominate by 5 1/4 lengths in the fast time of 1:32.77.
The Woodbine Mile is generally a productive prep for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and Modern Games has held his own against tough competition in Europe this year, so the Breeders’ Cup is seemingly ripe for his conquest.
In 2021, trainer Charlie Appleby sent European raider Yibir to pick up a pair of lucrative victories in the U.S., parlaying a Jockey Club Derby victory into a stretch-running triumph against older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Perhaps Appleby can achieve the same double with Nations Pride. The improving sophomore has been on a roll in the U.S., finishing second in the Belmont Derby (G1) before winning the Saratoga Derby (G1) and dominating Saturday’s Jockey Club Derby (G3) at Belmont at the Big A.
In the Jockey Club Derby, Nations Pride stalked respectable fractions of 23.80 seconds, 48.33, 1:12.55 and 1:37.02 from third place before accelerating the final two quarter-mile splits in about 23.77 and 23.02 seconds to trounce his pursuers by 6 1/4 lengths. His final time of 2:24.14 second for 1 1/2 miles broke the course record.
Future plans are still to be determined for Nations Pride, but if he returns to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, this Godolphin homebred will warrant respect.
Worth another try
Talented sophomore ran gamely when making his route debut in the one-mile E.B. Johnston at Los Alamitos. Facing older rivals for the first time, Big City Lights overcame a stumble at the start to set fractions of 23.94 seconds, 47.00 and 1:10.09 then succumbed in the final furlong to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths against graded-stakes winner The Chosen Vron. The final time was a quick 1:35.19, so Big City Lights’s first defeat was an admirable try.
The Saratoga Special (G2) winner gave way after setting the pace to finish sixth in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, which marked his two-turn debut. It was a far cry from Damon’s Mound’s first two starts sprinting, both of which produced decisive victories, so perhaps cutting back in distance can help him rebound.
Echo Again disappointed while finishing seventh as the odds-on favorite in the Iroquois, but he actually showed some spark under challenging circumstances, advancing wide into the teeth of the pace before weakening down the homestretch. Echo Again entered off a single start at Saratoga and might bounce back next time.
Impressive Saratoga maiden winner faltered as the 3-10 favorite in a seven-furlong allowance at Belmont at the Big A, tracking the pace on the outside before getting worn down by the graded stakes-experienced Nabokov. It wasn’t the strongest performance, but Expressman was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths and showed enough promise on debut to warrant supporting again next time.
Off the Watch List
Mo Donegal. The talented 2022 Belmont Stakes winner has been retired to stud.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.